I have been debating whether to share here in HC since the quarterly. Initially, I wanted to just stay away and instead ask the company regarding what I felt were serious misinformation given to me as a shareholder of the company. But given the thread and the spin on "Disappointing", I'd like to give my POV on literal disappointment with ADO.
I've been one of the lucky holders for ADO who Geoff has replied to on even the smallest questions. And this is partially why I have previously made ADO my largest holding.
However, the past few months, I feel I've been misguided by the small tid bits given to me by GC. Without posting the entire conversations we have had, and to not burn the bridge entirely, a short summary is given below:
After one of the previous quarterlies, I questioned GC in May on two things:
1) Why is the revenue so low
2) Is there a change of a capital raise
Early May, he responded:
"I think you are being far more pessimistic than is warranted from what was presented. We expect that we will burn of the order $1M this year and that is in the absence of a number of the major projects we are working on bearing fruit. Let's say that we are out by a factor of 2 ie $2M burn. $6M (approx) in the bank. Where is the need for a capital raising?"
Two things that made me doubt my investment:
1) Shortly after that reply, $1M capital raise was made for batteries. Personally, I believe this is a good move and applaud the company for raising capital where possible without impacting the register too much. What I did not appreciate was the play of words in that capital was raised for batteries and therefore a separate business decision.
After #1, I wasn't too fussed. It was a good move and something that may prove very beneficial for the company. What made me doubt my investment is #2 below:
2) After the past two quarterlies, it is clear they will burn substantially more than $1M even $2M. Especially now that the grant from 2013 has expired (I believe it has expired this quarter? or at least next quarter?) and the raise for batteries is a one-off cash inflow.
How can ADO be burning $1-2M this YEAR? Looking at the last two quarterlies, it's clearly not possible!
Just the last quarterly paints a picture - total net investing cash flow is (1,453,000) and the only reason our cash held is still quite high was because of the $1M raised. Last quarter was the same with net decrease of (1,190,000)
Even with the cash raised ADO has already spent $1.6M for a half year. And so I asked ADO officially (instead of going through GC) what their comments are and whether we can make even $2M spend per year. The only way for these estimates to hold through is if we have receivables of around $1M per quarter and reduce our net cash flow to around (200,00) per quarter. I have not heard back and so I write it here hoping the people attending the site visit can clarify our cash position.
Someone mentioned that cash receipts may have extended payment terms or perhaps we are not working off milestone payments but only upon completion of paid work. All of these are viable... but until we know for certain we have RECEIVABLES that will offset our spend in the next two quarters, there will be a need to find extra funding no matter what assurance is given (from personal experience, I've been given that assurance before as well).
Before anyone tells me off for raising my concern of capital raising, please note that without the R&D grant, and without another capital raise for Batteries, we will be burning $2.6M per half year from my calculation. We have about $5-6M which means we have enough for 1 year.
I've lessened my position as the risk has now increased substantially than what I though the past few years.
Signing off and hoping other people can relay my concerns to ADO management. I may have burned bridges with this post so will be watching and reading from the sidelines from now on.
Regards
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