@captian_matt, I posted this many many times, maybe you didnt read my posts on this since 2014.
in summary -
use the 2014 DFS of $4.05 C1costs W to BS
then deduct 30% of AUD drop (now 68 v 100)
then deduct 95% of transport costs of 98% dirt + 2% Ni for 400km W to BS and back, thats $1.60 -2.30 perlb at least
then deduct the capex of $25M spent since then on refurbishing the mines, declines, rails, aircon vents, electricals, lighting, new drives/mills
then deduct the completed drill drive costs to ore bodies after the 3 drive/refurbishments to gosling, GS SS
then deduct the higher volume FTM plan which increases tonnes processed thereby reducing the cost per lb of each by economies of scale (processing 1.1MTpa is way cheaper per T than doing 200ktpa despite overall higher cost)
then add inflation since 2014, not much maybe 10% total
then add higher wage costs (maybe 5% higher from the 2014 boomtime sums paid)
then deduct the DIDO 9-5 mon-fri roster costs for the miners as opposed to FIFO costs (deduct 40% less)
The C1costs taking out the Aud$ difference and transport costs alone drops the C1 to us$1.50
then add in the wage costs processing cost of 0.69 royalty of 0.5 etc, mining costs of digging 98% dirt to surface onto ROM pad is the MOST expensive process, and if this is 9-5 mon to fri at way lower rates like a DIDO full time job then the wages are way LOWER than before, so heaps of costs room to 4.00.
The large reduction of AUD$ & the elimination of massive transport/fuel/driver costs is the clincher.
The processor is on top of the ore bodies within 200m,
hallelujah. Its minng NIRVANA.
Thereby, AISC cannot be higher than 4.00 imho.
On my figures SS GS BS to BS mill, then AISC could even be as low as 3.30 uslb right now.
We can also work this out indirectly via PAN DFS & POS CEO comments,
as we know PAN in their DFS stated high margin was 50% of its AISC and thereby when PH stated when NP was 8.00 that we had "HIGH MARGIN production" he knew this meant 50% therefore implying AISC was 4.00 when NP was 8.00.
Hence his use of the wording "HIGH MARGIN".
Now NP is 9.50 headed back to 10-20 so this high margin should become SUPER HIGH MARGIN.
But sure the market thinks the revenue is $0 and margins are $0 & there is no production potential value.
But not for long & not forever.
$500Mpa revenue cannot be ignored forever.
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