One must suspect that if the last horizontal section drilling goes similarly to the latest one and that they do not have any flow line tie up problems, then it could be possible that they could produce much more than 12000 bopd if they chose to.
They have previously stated that if this is the case that they will keep the production suppressed at 12000 bopd so as to maintain reservoir pressure for as long as they can and therefore protect the overall reservoir.
However, the upside on doing this is that they could produce at 12000 bopd for a longer period than initially thought and this would be a considerable plus for cashflow during that period.
Usually after such drilling is completed, the results are analysed and the reservoir engineers typically at that point review the reservoir modelling to see how it stacks up against the previous model. If these results turn out to be better than forecast, could be in for a reserves upgrade on top of possibly longer production at 12000 bopd.
That would be a double win for the JV - for both NDO and OEL.
And a triple win if oil prices stay where they currently are. Anything being sold at current prices would be huge cashflow for the JV and the 70% coming straight back to JV partners as capex recovery would flow very quickly and the project debt would be mowed down pretty sharpish. I recall 9 months from a previous string, and perhaps even quicker.
Let's pray there are no hiccoughs hooking it all up.
NDO Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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