Big Alvin, just had to give you a thumbs up for the dry humour you managed to weave in. T
he short and long of it is that you're in now and its no use to your health or pocket to think negative, I reckon it can only be up from here. Fact is that RdB was pressed to come up with a minimum flow figure for #pb3. I was actually surprised that he came up with 1mmcfd, normally you won't get anything like it from management. I considered that his number demonstrated huge confidence that the well is going to blow solid numbers. He knows the market will shoot him down if it does'nt scrub up to his prediction, but will cheer if we get double or triple, nevertheless he too can only guess/speculate. He would be aware that it blew 2.75mmcfd equiv for 17 hours while still pushing up frac fluids, he also ann'd that the well subsequently built up reapidly. Even if we can't draw conlusive predictions from that, the signs are good.
As you rightly pointed out, the anns are rubbish, you need a high level of expertise to decipher them and even then you've only got half the story. RdB does not have expertise at the wellhead and depends on rig operators and the petrophysical guys to tell him what's going on. To make matters worse, I gather that most of the reports are put together by his office staff, who write what they think was being said - which does'nt help much.
In any event with the sp being at a 3 or more year low, its not good value for anyone to fall on their sword prior to the flow ann around the w/end sometime, then we'll all be a little wiser.
As you have gathered, I believe it is a matter of the management being willing to scoop up the oppy cash v continuing the comfortable life of collecting executive pay packets. I'm betting on jockey/dirs to get it done.
Hang in there - not far to go!
GDN Price at posting:
7.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
