Just when someone puts up a contrarian view, the heat is on!
Let this forum be a place where we can share positive and negative sentiment. Even
though some people post untrue statements in a section of their post, as Frader did
by mentioning 'unsustainable' . So try to be careful how you post here guys, only the
truth.
Also when posting I think it is wise to post some figures to back up your claims. In regards
to ASXdude, Im afraid, even though I used to be in his fan club a long time ago, his his constant
upramping views have been basically the same since the price was 4 cents. How much has he cost people
who have thrown money into this since that time???
Col69, good post, pointing out that AGO's margin was only $8 in the March qtr. Think about it, only
$8, and the IO price was high in that period, so what is their margin going to be in this and next
qtr (even accounting for 35% hedging for April, May)??
Another thing, people are working out profit after taking deducting C1 costs, ending with $100 m
profit for the year. This is not profit cos what about rent, wages, interest, etc etc?? That needs to
be deducted.
Another worry is the demand for lower quality ore like AGOs is dropping. They had to discount
their last production by 5%, from what I can remember. The risk here is that there may not be a
big enough market for their IO in the future, considering environmental issues by the Chinese.
I think the business is sustainable for now, but with IO in the $50s, AGO will struggle (someone may
have a contrary view, so pls post here) .
Have a look at
the half yearly P&L. Profit of $19 million. Adding back Loss on Financial Instruments (note 5) ($22 m) = about$40 million for the half year. At a realised IO price of $66
Now March qtr, realised price of $62. Not much detail in the report of Revenue. $8 margin as
stated by the MD. Does anyone know if this $8 is C1 cost margin, or margin overall including
Fixed costs (wages\etc)
Please can some of you out there, comment or correct or elaborate on the above. I don't
want to be the only one posting figures here.
However some positives for AGO, mainly: diversity into Lithium. That's why I have a buy order
in at .013 (speculative)
I was the one who posted dump CD. Also the vote on CD was by me, which was moderated, because
of opposition by holders (yes you know who you are).
However 10 people voted to go ahead with CD. None to dump CD unfortunately.
CD has a C1 cost of $62, therefore
no margin here (can someone confirm this figure). The $50million will be wasted, they may as
well give it to the poor.
I would like to put that $50 million from CD into a JV with Altura, or PLS or whoever. Even free up some
more cash at bank (the lenders would have to agree) and invest some more in Li.
Time is running out, its better
to get into Li sooner than later for market share and high margin. In the meantime they can scale up IO production from the operating IO mine, even at the risk of increased C1 cost.
This is what I would do, however Im not the MD ;(
Thoughts anyone?? and on the financials as well (at the top half of the post)...