tilleydog,
Not sure where $30 - $40 is coming from?
What I'm suggesting is the Minmetals are paying $20K/t of future production. They also become a sub holder in MWE by default.
MWE's production profile will peak in CY13 at around 39K Cu tonnes (giving them a free cashflow of <1x current price) and then settle to around 15kt pa for the following 10 years.
Using the above you could easily suggest a market cap leading into production in late CY12 of +$400M. To get the price above $5 they will need to confirm a higher resource base to allow for an increased production profile to 25ktpa. They appear quitely confident in this regard.
Conclusion: IMO +$3 is achievable during CY12 given the company will be flooded with cash in CY13 irrespective of Cu price (given it's net cash cost /lb of production).
MWE
mawson west ltd
