ralom, " I do think we will be surprised and the full 6 months will not be needed." me too.
Two different scenarios that may play in the next few months. Pure speculation, based on zero facts, and I don't particularly think one is more likely than the other.
1.TAKEOVER.
One defining component of a predatory t/o is buying an asset at the cheapest sp. To achieve this on-market manipulation is used. Ranging from shorting -- shortman will show that at T+4. Another mechanism is to strategically use bots to "walk the sp down, to further discourage/fatigue holders. A pro can alter each technique detailed below to suit their strategy, ie. cheaper sp.
Banging the close
Also known as marking the close.
1) A form of market manipulation where a trader uneconomically buys or sells futures contracts during the closing period. This is done to benefit futures positions purchased earlier in the day, or positions in a derivative that is cash-settled based on the futures settlement price of that day.
2) Violating bids or offers to artificially mark the closing price.
These two practices have been outlawed in European gas and power markets by the Regulation on Wholesale Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (REMIT) and the Maret Abuse Regulation (MAR).
https://www.risk.net/definition/banging-close
... or spoofing...
Spoofing is a disruptive algorithmic trading entity employed by traders to outpace other market participants and to manipulate commodity markets.[1][2][3][4] Spoofers feign interest in trading futures, stocks and other products in financial markets creating an illusion of exchange pessimism in the futures market when many offers are being cancelled or withdrawn, or false optimism or demand when many offers are being placed in bad faith.[5] Spoofers bid or offer with intent to cancel before the orders are filled. The flurry of activity around the buy or sell orders is intended to attract other high-frequency traders (HFT) to induce a particular market reaction such as manipulating the market price of a security. Spoofing can be a factor in the rise and fall of the price of shares and can be very profitable to the spoofer who can time buying and selling based on this manipulation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoofing_%28finance%29
... or even short and distort...
Short and distort
A variant of the pump and dump scam, the "short and distort" works in the opposite manner. Instead of first buying the stock, and then artificially raising its price before selling, in a "short and distort" the scammer first short-sells the stock, and then artificially lowers the price, using the same techniques as the pump and dump but using criticism or negative predictions regarding the stock. The scammer then covers their short position when they buy back the stock at a lower price.[19] This tactic is commonly used by institutions and brokers to dupe individual traders in the Korean stock market, as only institutional traders are allowed to shortsell stocks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump
2. CAPITAL RAISE (Retail).
I, like many here have seen the writing on the wall often. The dance possibly begins with good news and/or a Presentation, Very close to this release(s) comes a Cleansing Notice or Appendix directly relating to share structure. The sp is often, though not always, goes higher using HFT and bots under the contol of the lead broker for the raise.
If this eventuates it's important to see the result of the raise. Was it "underwritten" best, "oversubscribed" (heavily or otherwise is second best), and then it's a downward slope from heavily subscribed to "You don't love us anymore." The time it takes to complete this is also telling.
The above scenarios are just that, scenarios, or hypotheses. I don't favour one over the other, and neither happening is a strong probability. Just throwing it out there because there are some smart cats here.
... 3, 2, 1, the weekend begins! Enjoy it, or why the heck are you sweating this spec game?!
OV
(20min delay)