Hi guys When I enter heavily into a stock i often to a lot of...

Hi guys
When I enter heavily into a stock i often to a lot of research to delve into the detail of the numbers , particularly future projections of earnings , production, cash flow etc
The more I look into ROCs forward numbers the more I become increasingly confident it is seriously undervalued

Here are some forward numbers for discussion
The key assumptions is the oil price which I assume a Brent price of 110 throughout the period . Other variables are OPEX which I use 17 and DDA at 30. Dda doesn't impact cashflow but it impacts reported NPAT. Although I value NPAT , free cash flow is for me a much more important figure that suggests the health of the business and growth a balance sheet strength
Production I assume to be 6808-7000 bold in 2012 assuming no production from Beibu until 2013 . I then assume a jump to about 8000. Bpd in 2013 assuming for the sake of conservatism a slow production ramp up
Cash flow per share 2012 will be about 18 cents per share
Cash flow flow per share in 2013 approx about 20 cents per share ( yes they are big numbers relative to a SP of 32.5 cents

Cash accumulation . Starting form a net cash position of approx 40 million ( takes account of divistment funds 15 million usd and expenses on BMG 15 million usd) cash in 2012 will remain relatively constant due to Malaysian contact inv and Beibu drilling. Despite the fact that a lot of the free cash flow will be. Vested in Malaysia, the fact the inv by ROC is guaranteed by Petronas with a margin for contingencies) then despite cash not growing much in 2012 the reality is ROC balance Becomes stronger and the funds ROC invest in per development of the cluster field is as good as a term deposit . In 2013 cash balance takes off as Beibu development has occurred and production benefits of Beibu start flowing. This will see a jump in cash to approx 110 by end of 2013.

PE ratios - ave PE of oil and gas producers is in the teens. Rocs forward PE in 2012 is approx 5.5 in 2012 and around 4.7 in 2013. This ofcourse assumes today's oil price ( which I think will be higher) and reasonable conservative oil production assumptions.

Rocs has only 150k barrels of hedging which is marginally in the money so it is now very leveraged to the oil price. An oil price if 120 changes all numbers significantly pushing PE in 2013 down below 4 and increasing cash accumulation by the end of 2013 to approx 140 odd million. There are a few things which I have left out which can add some additional value. A successful well in block h which ROC has a 20 percent interest ( free carried) will add significantly to reserves or the execution of the pre emotive rights to acquire all the permit pre spud this may will add 16 million usd or a about 2 cents per share.

As mentioned previously ROCs BMG write down and problem with debt during the GFC has made analysts more cautious. Despite this increase conservatism we currently have 3 broker valuations at 60-68.

Interested in other peoples thoughts in terms of my thinking - happy to be challenged on the above assumptions / figures erc