No need for me to say anything just read this gobsmacking article in The Herald Sun today.
Tim Pallas has zero credibility and shou;d resign immediately.
********************************************************************************** Shannon Deery: Budget reveals Treasurer Tim Pallas an expert at fiscal sleight of hand
The Allan government has become adept at cleverly masking over the cracks in the budget to present what appears to be a solid set of accounts — and Tuesday’s effort was a masterclass in smoke and mirrors. Shannon Deery May 14, 2024 - 8:29AM
Victoria will remain Australia’s most indebted state despite major cuts to health, education and big projects in this year’s budget. The state is expected to be $190 billion in the red in just four years. Victoria’s net debt is forecasted to reach $187.8 billion by 2027-28. “Times are tough for many Australians,” Victorian Treasurer…
Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas’s 10th budget was a masterclass in smoke and mirrors.
There is no question that since taking control of the state’s books in 2014 Pallas has proved himself an expert at the fiscal sleight of hand.
But even so, last Tuesday’s effort was impressive.
With Victorians firmly focused on soaring debt levels – now tipped to hit $187.8bn by 2027-28 – Pallas made much of the fiscal strategy to progressively reduce debt as a proportion of the state’s overall economy.
This was a new fiscal setting that was right for our times, with a firm focus on driving new growth across our state, he told us.
And this budget would see net debt to Gross State Product fall for the first time since 2017 from 25.2 per cent in 2026-27 to 25.1 per cent in 2027-28. A whole 0.1 per cent!
It might be small, but it’s a start, he said, and showed Victoria was headed in the right direction.
Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas’s 10th budget was a masterclass in smoke and mirrors. Picture: Getty Images
Dig a little deeper and you realise that as recently as just December, the Treasurer’s budget update forecast net debt to GSP to be 25.1 per cent in 2026-27.
In the five months since that forecast conveniently increased by 0.1 per cent, allowing Pallas to wave his magic wand and reverse that trajectory for a bit of good news in the budget.
Abracadabra, hey presto, the government introduces a new step to its fiscal strategy: a progressive reduction of net debt to GSP levels.
Smoke and mirrors, ladies and gentlemen.
It’s always in the days after the budget is delivered, and the wheels of government spin grind to a halt, that the buried nasties are uncovered.
The funding cuts to cancer research, the reduced elective surgery targets, the millions of dollars ripped from Victoria’s tourism marketing budget.
Or the $17bn blowout in public sector wages since Labor came to power in 2014.
It means on average the government has had to find an extra $1.8bn every year since it came to office to pay its public servants.
And it casts doubt over all of the government’s working assumptions.
Will the economy grow at the rate forecast?
Will government expenses match predictions?
Will the government’s expected revenue be realised?
If not, the whole exercise is futile.
This government has become adept at cleverly masking over the cracks in the budget to present what appears to be a solid set of accounts. Picture: Diego Fedele
This government has become adept at cleverly masking over the cracks in the budget to present what appears to be a solid set of accounts.
It’s been almost three years since the Parliamentary Budget Office accused the state government of hiding the state’s true financial plight from Victorians.
Not much has changed.
In a 2021 report, the PBO accused the Andrews government of blurring key figures as it raced towards record debt levels.
The report criticised the scrapping or modifying of the government’s own fiscal targets, the burying of key details to make it harder for Victorians to properly monitor its financial performance and the increasingly fewer defined targets.
“Recent Victorian budgets have not presented a transparent and cohesive fiscal framework,” it said.
“Components are spread throughout the budget papers, and are vague, making objective assessment of performance difficult.”
It also said it was being hampered in doing its work because of constantly changing targets that made the state’s true financial position difficult to properly assess.
Indeed, trying to compare budgets year-on-year is no easy feat.
The Allan government’s first budget provided an opportunity for Jacinta Allan to not only outline her priorities, but to differentiate her administration from the Andrews era. Picture: Getty Images
Hundreds of government programs worth a combined $23bn faced the axe in last week’s budget, but actually trying to work out what has survived and what hasn’t is complex.
The PBO has previously called for longer fiscal projections given the implications of current policy and infrastructure decisions on the state’s record debt levels.
Modified or abandoned fiscal targets and objectives renders any meaningful comparison between budgets useless.
The state’s debt target is a perfect case in point.
When Andrews and Pallas came to office in 2014 there was a 6 per cent debt ceiling they used to boast about.
It was doubled to 12 per cent ahead of the 2018 election, and scrapped entirely when Covid-era debt took hold.
Now, our debt is simply open slather.
The Allan government’s first budget provided an opportunity for Jacinta Allan to not only outline her priorities, but to differentiate her administration from the Andrews era.
It was the government’s one shot to prove it’s economic credentials.
But still we have budget papers that mask the true story, spin in overdrive, a lack of transparency and debt continuing to loom large as an intergenerational dilemma.
All in all, a case of the same old tricks. Shannon Deery is State Politics Editor
Shannon Deery May 14, 2024 - 8:29AM
