"What I'm not hearing from the bears is 'what' is going to cause this capitulation if employment numbers stay relatively level?"
Ubid, that's a questionable assumption. Retail is now struggling. They employ a large number of people in this country. Consumption is a big driver of credit growth in Australia. We've had warnings from the big players in retail that things are not looking good.
The other risk factors are: Increasing finance costs - Bank finance costs are driven significantly by overseas credit crises, not the RBA. That wont end soon.
A falling AUD - A falling AUD means rising import prices, fuel being the big one.
A 'less fast' chinese economy - we all know government here is highly dependant on mining revenue. Middle class welfare is dependant on it. Thermal coal and iron ore prices - indicators of chinese economic health - are both showing weakness.
