It is hard to know what to think about MAD right now.
I have to concede the accuracy of those negative about MAD getting it right about human behavior and the share price movement over the last month or so, and its continued drift downwards.
I have tried to stand aside from being locked in to and just hanging on and determine what to do and why.
Emotionally it is very hard to sell. Financially I can risk a zero price. This no doubt clouds my judgement. I know that.
What I still struggle with is what is driving the price down, other than a lack of things to drive it up or hold it up. (And yes, I get the joke on us holders that hot air can make things rise)
The last production update contained no good news. It contained what could be reasonably seen as some bad news. I did think some of this had been priced in. I did think it MAY have reflected te new CEO slowing things down while sorting out priorities. I did wonder if the accident had any impact.
The price movement after the production update and the sale of 70 million shares at 31 cents has shown that others think the price should be lower. It is only a million or so shares a day, and these could be traders, but this is still market value.
The elephant in the room continues to be the true reserves of MAD together with its longer term operating ost model.
Everyone knows this. If the reserves make it worth half a billion to someone else, they may buy it or people will invest to get earnings.
I am unsure as to what responsibility MAD directors believe they have to help manage price movement in the short term beyond constant disclosure. They have disclosed a plan and when a new reserves report will be out. If the share price goes up or down in the meantime, and is not based on wild market speculation, does the board have a responsibility or interest to manage price?
And if they have news, there is more downside than upside in preempting their own formal reviews.
Right now, I do not know what the reserve report will say or do to share price.
I am guilty of hoping that:
The reduction is priced in Or The reduction is far less than that priced in And That if things were worse than this, and directors know this, they would have informed the market.
Yes, this means I am now operating on hope and trust.
FDM Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
