Using the data provided each day by Victoria's DHHS I've just undertaken an analysis of how the virus spread:
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-1-august-2020
1. As of May 16th the number of active cases in Victoria from Wave 1 had fallen to just
56 - it remained around that level until June 1st [71 cases].
2. On June 1st, the postcodes with most active cases were Melbourne [13], INTERSTATE [ie. CBD hotels - 10], Casey [10], Brimbank [9] and Moreland [9] ... Greater Geelong & Colac [0], Regional Victoria but not Geelong-Colac [2],
Aged Care Homes [0], Unknown [71]
3. By July 1st the virus had spread rapidly to
370 active cases (five fold increase since June 1st): Hume [82], Brimbank [40], Moreland [37], Moonee Valley [28], Casey [21], Whittelsea [21], Melbourne [20], ... Greater Geelong & Colac [1], Regional Victoria but not Geelong-Colac [4],
Aged Care Homes [1], Unknown [13]
4. By July 17th there were
2,462 active cases (more than a six fold increase in just 16 days): Wyndham [299], Hume [280], Melbourne [264], Brimbank [238], Moonee Valley [223], Moreland [133], Whittlesea [109], Banyule [107], Melton [106], Yarra [76], Darebin [70], Maribyrnong [68], ... Greater Geelong & Colac [8], Regional Victoria but not Geelong-Colac [23],
Aged Care Homes [104], Unknown [34].
5. By July 31st there
5,743 active cases [more than doubled in just two weeks]: Wyndham [671], Brimbank [658], Hume [460], Whittelsea [435], Melton [340], Moreland [320], Melbourne [279], Casey [243], Maribyrnong [179], Yarra [170], Greater Dandenong [156], Darebin [140], Yarra Ranges [108], ... Greater Geelong & Colac [151], Regional Victoria but not Geelong-Colac [94],
Aged Care Homes [928], Unknown [128]
6. As of August 1st there were
5919 active cases: Wyndham [676], Brimbank [684], Hume [462], Whittelsea [437], Melton [351], Moreland [338], Melbourne [280], Casey [262], Maribyrnong [189], Yarra [170], Greater Dandenong [161], Darebin [139], Yarra Ranges [112], ... Greater Geelong & Colac [164], Regional Victoria but not Geelong-Colac [98],
Aged Care Homes [1008], Unknown [138]
* Victoria still had 56 active cases as of May 16th - the viruses two week incubation period led to 370 cases by June 1st [that period was significant]
* Wave 2 started with Melbourne's hotels housing infected people from interstate and quickly spread to inner suburbs and to the outer suburbs of Casey & Whittlesea [workers travelling from those hotels?]
* Al Taqua College has 184 active cases with meatworks and supermarket distribution centres experiencing large numbers of active cases.
* During the Victorian school holidays active case numbers exploded into the Geelong-Colac area and into aged cared homes.
* Melbourne's lockdown of inner city towers on July 4th prevented numbers therein exploding [some inner city postcodes stabilised].
* Melbourne's lockdown starting July 9th did not prevent an explosion in Aged Care home infections but did slow the rate of increase in active cases.
* The rate of increase in active cases has slowed; Brimbank, Casey and Moreland are still experiencing many new cases each day though..
* Except for the Geelong-Colac area and nearby, regional Victoria has remained almost free of active cases.
* Active cases throughout the federal government's $For $Profit aged care sector are still not under control.
