Just thought I would add my 2c on this...Personally, I believe...

Just thought I would add my 2c on this...

Personally, I believe this is significant news, not just for NWE but all WA on-shore gas plays.

It may not seem like the type of news to provide an immediate catalyst for any SP re-rating but in the medium-long run, IMO it will have a material positive impact on a number of companies in the O&G space.

The NWS JV partners would have been very keen to have the $34bn capex Karratha Gas Plant's operational life extended to ensure the high margin LNG exports continue for the decades to come. It is a literal gravy train for them ATM and it doesn't look like stopping anytime soon. The fact that the KGP is recommended to be approved to operate until 2070 tells you that gas / LNG is not going to become redundant by the end of this decade... or even by 2050, regardless of the growing push for net zero.

Most here will recall that in 2020 BPT and Mitsui became the first ever 3rd party gas producers to secure Waitsia gas access to the lucrative benefits of exporting thru the NWS plant. The reality is there will be other 3rd party gas suppliers to also access the NWS plant, and IMO that news wont be far away. It's not just because these companies (i.e NWE, MIN, STX, TPD etc.) will be crying out / begging for it, but because the WA govt and NWS JV partners need it to happen. The WA govt will be keen to make this happen as they will receive lucrative royalties (unlike off-shore gas which comes under federal jurisdiction & coffers). And the NWS JVP needs the gas, a lot of gas, to keep their 5 LNG trains fully utilised. KGP is forecast to be short 8 mmtpa by 2030 and Waitsia supply is only a stopgap fix. Queue the bevy of on-shore PB players ready to supply gas from their respective multi TCF fields. Even better that NWE's significant portion of LD gas is un-contracted as yet....

In terms of profit margins, we will soon have a very clear idea of how lucrative accessing the NWS LNG export avenue will be when BPT starts reporting revenue... from first half 2023 IIRC. And it will be some eye-watering numbers IMO, especially as LNG is forecast to remain at a historically high ~ $30/GJ for years to come... compared to WA dom-gas prices ~ $8. Keep an eye on those rev #s as a catalyst for all PB players.

Of course, MIN will have crunched the #s, they will know how much gas is needed to transition out of diesel... and how much is needed to supply the enormous energy needs for their downstream plans of processing Lithium and IO magnetite in WA. And if we are correct in supposing that NWE/MIN permits contain in excess of 6+TCF then there will be plenty of excess gas to export via NWS. Everyone will be a winner.

IMO the real catalyst will be when another 1 or 2, 3rd-party gas players win approval to export via the NWS. And I believe the bigger players will move ahead of that decision, wanting to secure / consolidate a number of on-shore gas players so they can control supply and use their scale to ensure influence in key energy decisions.

Lastly, if the news from STX today is anything to go by, it further reinforces the "fill & spill" theory... gas flowing from West Errugulla into our "giant" Lead E prospect and onto our even more giant Lockyer Deep discovery. The even better news appears that this part of the Permian fairway has all the indications that NWE/MIN are sitting in the sweetest of sweet spots, with even greater thickness / pay zones of the Kingia, higher permeability / porosity, the highest flows rates and no GWC as yet.

I think we are in for some fantastic times ahead.

hagwe