Views on CCP Share Price, page-28

The Item you wanted more on:

Every other model has adjustments and only this one hasn't
I am unsure what model you have in mind – please elucidate. 

One of the cornerstones of my investment process is to build an excel spreadsheet that evaluates my own valuation of the stock and then it evaluates the future which can create a DCF valuation or you can use a sum of the parts or even a hybrid. I used to build a model each time I invested and each model was unique but often I would make an adjustment to one that I would want to use elsewhere or I may just have wondered if it would make a difference. So I built a standard model that really only looks to earnings by division and then balance sheet strength. It made maintenance a lot easier. I am about to embark on rebuilding the entire model in April this year. That's the template.

Each investment however has required me to add something to it to adjust for its industry or individual circumstances. For example my SOL valuation takes into account certain investments at market value (TPM - is one because at times its PE implied growth that would not be achieved by SOL). In others it may well exclude property and value that based upon a different set of criteria.

Each year I see and measure how the company did compared to my expectations and that drives my view on the results. If you dont have a model you cannot really have a view on the results other than a general view or a reflection on others comments.

When I put CCP into the basic model I could not find a reason for changing or adding to the model. My theory being that its either too simple a business or (as I believe it to be) a business that is too interactive so changing a valuation on one part makes little difference as management determine profit. That the best valuation is a simplistic one.

I did give consideration to wallet wizard and whether I should value the lending side of the business differently. I came to the conclusion that management can direct assets to either the debt collection or lending based upon return on assets so a growth in the lending book was probably a function of management rather than the market so that a decline was not a decline in the business division but rather a management allocation of resources and therefore did not see the necessity for a separate part to my model. 

When things are that simple you start thinking that for the company to trade in that pond is easy and there should be many new competitors each year thus depressing margins. That is not the case here so you have to then realise that the business is especially sensitive to management ability. Which is exactly what you state - I don't own the others you mention as I see CCP as far superior and that is what I want. CLH and PNC just look to me like "me to" companies and thus not my style.

Probably the answer is that I don't have to adjust the model because of Saint Thomas Beregi and the trust that he has rebuilt with us.

I agree about the possibility to discuss the Chair Donald Evan Mclay and the impact of his persistent selling. On a brief summation I have thought that his selling has capped the share price growth at times.