Danash,
I think you may be rather optimistic with the US$40-43pt FOB prediction. My understanding that it will be nearer the $50pt mark. Crucially, that means it is competitive Australian exporters to the Asian market. Asian importers are keen to diversify their reliance on Australian producers and so at that level good demand will exist for Coalspur's product.
Certainly the resource and capacity would be available for the mine to potentially increase to 12m tons over time, but I don't think that will be at the forefront of people's minds when they are valuing the stock. Initial production levels of 6-8mt are feasible, which would point to a valuation of $4-5 on production and push the price into the $1.50-$2 range now.
cheers
Granger
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Danash,I think you may be rather optimistic with the US$40-43pt...
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