Hi Danash,
Your analysis is certainly more reasoned by mine, however I was told by the company to look for an FOB number around $50. From previous experience, they will prob come in a bit below this. This may be an initial production fig rather than life of mine, so it is quite possible we will both be right. As you say, we will know soon enough anyway. The most important thing is that the mine is competitive with Australia. The margin will be looked after by the coal price, which is looking pretty bullish on a five to ten year view.
As I mentioned, I am rather hoping that the pfs will get the stock towards the $2 mark over a month or so, after that it becomes a longer term hold, albeit a good one. It is the sort of stock that will hold its ground when the rest of the market falls apart (as it surely will when QE2 subsides), and therefore a decent name to keep in the portfolio.
G
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