JHird, your analysis is perfectly sound as it is based on...

JHird, your analysis is perfectly sound as it is based on charting and an obvious knowledge in the market. May I offer another reason for the adverse movement of VIL recently?

2009 has been a year when investors adopted a get-back-what-I-lost mentality during the last 18 or so months. Morality has gone out the window. Investment strategy has taken a back seat to plain old profit-taking at all expense.

Jamesliu wrote: Even in event of a duster, VIL can still do another well with newly raised cash, so it's probably a matter of holding a couple of months & start all over again.

James, James, James... VIL management will take the cash and pocket it, no risk whatsoever. If this is a duster they will lay low and emerge later in a new entity, fed on the 2 million (minus expenses) that their mates gave them, and they gave back to their mates by allowing them a huge price spread - 80 mill shares issued at 2.6 when SP was at 3.3 - and the opportunity to sell down quickly.

Greed, profit, that's 2009. Same thing happened only a few weeks ago in LRC. Rising on rumour, called a halt, did a CR and the price dropped like a foetus in an alley birth.

Do not trust management of any company to do the right thing by shareholders. Be cold and hard and ruthless in your buying and selling decisions.

My predictions for VIL are that over the next 10 days or so the price will sink to 1.8 - 1.9. On the (hopeful) announcement of oil, the SP should bounce to no more than 2.6 and remain there until further anns in the new year.

Why 2.6? That's the placement price and bailing (placement) investors could use that price for tax purposes as evidence that they have made no profit.

Isn't greed grand.