Good points...
The upcoming events you mentioned that will cause possible further dilution will await all other contenders in the near future, but almost all of them trade with an over-inflated MC when compared to KNL and most of them will have more dilution by the time they are at the same junction that KNL is NOW and then will be hit with more again as per your above post:confused:
Taking a position <.20cents is only advisable if one believes the SP will be a lot higher by the time equity comes into play, which is what I'm betting on, my reasoning:
* Upcoming news will not only confirm mine construction but will also substantially (positively) increase all the projects metrics, anyone that has spend time doing a spreadsheet and has played with the various new parameters will know what I'm talking about. I trust you have done yours and where happy with even the most conservative numbers that came out.
* End users will need Graphite if we are coming even close to projected EV numbers by 2020, which IMO are
overly conservative and will surprise almost all analysts, my guess by 2019-20 it will become evident and KNL will be in the absolute sweet spot.
* Mega Pit hopefuls are counting on World Domination, one mine to supply the world and crush all smaller players. This is highly unlikely due to:
a) China is currently the main user and has unknown supply, analysts suspect they are running out of flake, but until I see them actually pay for the first large kt Flake import I remain to be convinced.= no need for imports.
b) Russia also possible large resources = no need to imports.
c) USA, Trump factor will make sure US & Canadian G Co's will prosper = no need for imports.
d) Europe, will eventually need to start their own Battery Manufacturing Facilities or risk loosing their enormous Car Export Revenues and become Car Importers = need for imports, but when??
* New Technology...By the time there will possibly be enough demand to sustain two or more Mega Pit operations, there is a real possibility that some new Battery will be on the market and might not have Natural Graphite as the Anode Material? Unlikely in the short term, but with all the $millions spend worldwide to find the next best thing one can't dismiss it.
*KNL = save two way bet, if demand increases and Natural G remains the preferred source for anodes, KNL can upscale and be even more profitable, if something new comes up, we will be in production and highly likely there will be enough demand to sustain a 60ktpa operation of Quality Natural Graphite and we are profitable at 60ktpa, the Mega Pits are not!!
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