Where is the VHL share price headed? We await three events:1....

Where is the VHL share price headed? We await three events:

1. Publication of the findings of the reviewer into the value/potential of Virax's IP portfolio.

Expected when? Next week.

2. Announcement of Novartis' decision as to whether it will exercise its option to commercialize TG 4010, the Transgene/Virax lung cancer drug.

Expected when? Five weeks.

3. Announcement by Transgene of the start of Phase 3 trialling of TG4010.

Expected when? Sixteen weeks.

Based on Friday's trading range of $0.015-$0.017 on heavy turnover of near 12m units, I sense the market is preparing for a positive IP announcement.

I estimate the probability of the shares closing next week at $0.020 or above at around 60pc.