Virgin Rosa !!, page-18

Hey Eagle,

I am still around and still hold CTM. Below is my opinion mate.

From FA point of view:

+ves
-> we still got a heap of cash and cash burn hasn't been crazy, so we still got a fair bit of runway. I still believe the $10mil raise was a good move by DG, else sophs would've pushed this sub 1c looking for cap raises every couple of quarters
-> drilling at Jaguar is going smooth with some nice positive results and relatively less impact because of the wet season

-ves
-> the main one I reckon is people's frustration looking at how Jambi (and to lesser extent Itty) is quickly put on the back burner. While I totally understand that the primary focus remains on Jaguar, there is no reason why Jambi can be progressed further too in parallel. IO is still strong and likely to remain so this year, considering Vale reduced its supply guidance recently. I questioned here many times what the top level execs including DG are doing while the geo team is busy drilling! surely, they can hunt for a deal on Jambi
-> nickel price has retreated. I don't think for an explorer this is a big setback, however it'll have some effect, not as much as to a producer though

From TA point of view:

-ves
-> as mentioned in one of my posts previously, one or couple of instos tried to exit off the back of 3rd Dec news, and unfortunately the way they sold few big parcels in those 3 days at whatever bids available absolutely killed both momentum as well as confidence. There was a bit of fight on 4th Dec I think at 1.2c, which could've been the turning point, but buyers lost that battle eventually
-> even on Tuesday this week, 1.2c was wiped and with in seconds a big 15mil dump on 1.1c...I mean why would you do that rather than distributing at 1.2c is beyond my understanding and kills confidence. One thing that clearly lacked is a cornerstone insto that is willing to absorb supply in such scenarios
-> as a result of the above, MAs were down, other tech indicators turned negative very quickly. With such large SOI, it's like a big ship to steer and turnaround, and unfortunately the unlisted options expired too as a result

+ves
-> after a long time, today we saw price rising above 20 and 50 DMA; MACD turned +ve as well
-> I reckon today's buying is from an insto. After such low confidence events, I don't think retail is game enough to throw 10mil orders at offers one after another. If we could move slowly to 1.3 to 1.5c, the daily chart forms a nice cup and handle which in charting world is attractive setup. I don't think today's action is leaky boat, as they would've taken all offers upto 1.5c if that's the case

Long story short, I see a light at the end of the tunnel based on today's action. You'd think that whoever bought today (+ big volumes last 3 days + the 50mil exchanged at 1.15c few weeks ago) would want to make a decent profit

Why the action has been so bad in the past couple of months - mainly because of lack of insto support. Plus, the quick shelving of Jambi again

What would really put fire under the SP - as @blokes said, Jambi offtake would be a game changer, even if it's not with Vale. Or, intersecting a huge hit with decent depth at Jaguar

For me, the upside outweighs downside risks, simple as that and that's why I am continuing to hold.

All in my opinion only, I might be completely delusional please DYOR