Todays NdPr-Oxide-Price = 430,000 RMB equates to about 65,538 USD/mt.
The investment case for rare earths has traditionally been based on the need to break the near-monopoly control of the industry held by Chinese producers.
That concern remains a factor, especially for European and U.S. car makers who need long-life magnets made from two of the metals, neodymium and praseodymium, in their increasing output of EVs.
To meet rare earth demand in EVs, which require about five-times as much rare earth material as vehicles with a combustion engine, an estimate which means the supply for NdPr needs to triple by 2030.
“We do not think the market has created sufficient incentives for supply growth to triple by 2030,” UBS said in a research note on Lynas.
“We estimate that an incentive price for NdPr is approximately $60/kg. Prices have been below this level for most of the past nine years, averaging $41/kg.”
UBS said growing demand for EVs and their heavy use of rare earths would shift the NdPr market into deficit by 2023 when the price could reach “a fleeting peak of $100/kg.”
Conclusion: So, when you look in medium term until 2023 from todays 65,5 USD/kg to that targeted peak of 100 USD/kg there is still enough air left.
But bear in mind, a week ago we stood at around 50 USD/kg. This pace cannot be continued every week !
As I wrote yesterday: Now time is essential to bring the project on !!
(extract from that article some days ago)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2020/11/26/share-prices-rocket-as-the-rare-earth-rush-is-rebooted/?sh=191a79645893
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