I'm back in VML after I got out last year sometime.Always liked...

I'm back in VML after I got out last year sometime.

Always liked the story but they (VML) are light on NPV/figures. They seem to be securing offtake first before coming up with LOM potential production figures and then securing offtakes for them. Horse/cart type of thing. But it makes it harder to ascertained value/NPV.

Anyway, taking a somewhat rudimentary approach focusing on NdPr only (most of revenue anyway)

Looks like VML is targeting at least 2500t per annum of NdPr (from 2028, but probably sooner) + additional HREO concentrate as well (upside).


Thats just REEtec, but Ucore only mentions TREO. But assume NdPr content is ~30+% so there would be more there, especially at 5000t TREO to Ucore from 2026 so that's another 1500t to 2500t per year of NdPr. Bring total to 3500 to 5000t per year of NdPr? Is that right?

Anyway, just bringing this up because trying to get a feel for how they compare to HAS (I don't hold) but HAS has double the market cap with with an NPV of $1Bn. IMO, VML has the better upside at this stage based on back of envelope calcs based on NpDr content (alone).

HAS targeting 3400t of contained NpDr and it appears as though VML, is looking to do at least 70% of that (2500t) for REETec only, but add in Ucore and it could double to 5000t contained NpDr.

Gross simplification but that would imply an NPV of roughly $700M (REETec only) (only based on NpDr, with no upside included from Ucore + HREO. Adding Ucore contained NpDr and upside is essentially $1.4Bn NPV.

Basket price of TREO concentrate from VML appears to align to HAS. So, my question is - are my above assumptions around NpDr content about right? Am I totally off the mark?

VML doesn't have a clear DFS with this information, so piecing it together from 1 liner off take announcements and presentations is less than ideal. There basket price is assumptions per Kg look similar to what HAS used so I assume I'm on the right track.



Thoughts?