China's ban is focused on rare minerals rather than REEs. The...

China's ban is focused on rare minerals rather than REEs. The ban is a response to policies introduced under the Biden administration; however, 'senior Chinese officials are worried that President-elect Donald J. Trump plans more stringent policies during his coming term in office.'

If [Trump's policies] are more aggressive, on consideration of the reasoning provided by China's Ministry of Commerce for restricting current 'sales of gallium, germanium, antimony and so-called superhard materials to the United States ... on the grounds that they have dual military and civilian uses,' maybe they'd broaden the ban to REEs akin to their 2010 block on REE exports to Japan¹.

And yes, producers like Lynas would be a more reliable source than VML. If I had to guess, a ban extending to rare earth elements (REEs) would likely cause a price increase in the short term, similar to the surge seen in 2010. However, the price spike may not be as high this time, because the market has diversified since then — including Lynas and others.