VMT (ASX) Vmoto and Social Media

Originally posted by VYR: ↑

Thanks for the feed back,

Great to get constructive criticism and be able to fine tune the forecast column.

I can but hope everyone knows that my spread sheet is essentially a record of the past. Anything it says about what the future might hold is entirely something they everyone should use there own judgement about.

.Forecasting will never be more than what is hopefully an educated guess.

The big omission from the spread sheet in the forecast for what 300k unit sales might look like is any interest or other earnings on the surplus cash that will be generated from the free cash flow generated along the way to getting there. By the time the current business grows to that level there will be a lot more assets with income producing potential added to the toy box.

Hi Dak ,great to see you reviewing the spread sheet logic. Thanks.

I agree that the Greenmo bad debt coming back as a contribution from customers meant the formula in my spread sheet carrier forward that once off as an ongoing possible win.

I added a % of sales line and adjusted the contribution from customers down and also the Government subsidies which are often a fixed maximum.

Hi Marky,

Thank you also for your review.

The reason I post on hot copper is to learn from others and subject my analysis and interpretation of whats happening to review by fellow investors.

I based the Corporate and Administration costs growth on my understanding that Corporate and Administration costs are the relatively fixed costs of running and administrating the Public company. The senior executives and board members salaries will likely drive the increase in these costs above the inflation rate as they rightly are paid more for growing the business. Will those costs more than double? Even that would cause an avalanche of posts from the freebies haters.

The Administration costs associated with operating the business will rise with production numbers but the total operating expenses should fall as a percentage of revenues due to economies of scale. Worth noting the operating expenses fell to a low of 9.1% on 37K sales in 2022 so I'm thinking 10% might be a high guess for 300k sales and is probably not too low.

The average sales revenue per completed sale will like rise as the newly released more expensive products help lift the completed unit sales numbers to the 300k that management are providing the manufacturing capacity for based on internal forecasts for growth in sales.

I note your comments about Bad Debt expenses. We learnt how well management manage that risk by retaining title to the bikes until they are paid for which meant that the lions share of the $4m that was provided for in 2022 for Greenmo's debts came back.

When you look at the % of sales line I added the 0.1% is probably high rather than low. As I said it will never be more than a guess.

Expand

Thanks for taking my comments on board VYR
Even if you de-risk your figures (NPAT) by another 30% it does show how goddamn cheap we are at the moment if the business can start achieving those numbers they've indicated are possible based on the new factory/capacity. As mentioned previously frustrating hold on this one but not letting any of mine go at these levels until we see how things play out this year

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Last 13.5¢		Change -0.005(3.57%)		Mkt cap ! $56.45M

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