Hey VYRThanks for providing your best guess, always great to see...

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12/08/23

11:45

Post #: 69303228
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Originally posted by VYR: ↑

I forgot about the $1m of cash spent acquiring the UK distributors assets. Cash +land +distribution business up $2.7m for the 1st half is a solid result.

Beware of linking cash balance movement to a forecast of profit because as you have pointed out there are two very obvious cash guzzlers that reduce the balance and a lot other non cash assets lurking in the background. Given the order book was well down prepayments are probably well down.

I think my spread sheet, that held the revenue/completed unit sold, steady was very conservative, given managements note to the account that they were maintaining margins and there is a lot more than completed units delivering revenues as we have seen from other revenue and the emergence of flat pack sales.

See if you can find any obvious holes in it?

The Av Sale price / completed unit sold would better be described as revenue / completed unit sold.

My guess is we are headed for a better full year profit this year than last year if we don't have another $4m bad debt provision.

If you think that the rejuvenated Revolt plus Charged could have achieved more flat pack sales combined than Revolt did in the first half last year the average revenue /completed unit sold could be up considerably along with the bottom line.

Punt cautiously.

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Hey VYR

Thanks for providing your best guess, always great to see where others are thinking the P&L might be heading! Sometimes I think my spreadsheets are full of my biases

The biggest question mark for me is where the ASP lands (obviously lots of moving parts in this number given we don't get full viability on units). Your spreadsheet looks rather conservative on ASP on first glance given you have stopped the growth. However I was wondering if you had any specific thoughts on the historical fluctuation of ASP between H1 and H2? (see below)

ASP
H1 FY20 = 2,492
H2 FY20 = 2,666
H1 FY21 = 2,869
H2 FY21 = 2,666
H1 FY22 = 3,273
H2 FY22 = 3,017

The last two years H2 ASP has dropped and without knowing specifically what causes it I found myself using the H2 FY22 ASP in my spreadsheets as I roll forward which obviously gives me a very different result. This change would be a circa $4m difference in revenue which would fall right through to PBT too. I have no idea whats plausible for ASP so was just wondering if you or anyone else had a view on the recent variations of ASP between the halves.

My only theory that I could come up with was a large variation in the kits that are sold from 1st half to 2nd half.

Cheers

VMT Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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