Hi Mr Lumin, I would hypothesise that VMT is currently valued...

Hi Mr Lumin, I would hypothesise that VMT is currently valued well below NTA.

Working backwards the Net Assets per the audit accounts at December were AUD$79.5m.
The only intangibles on the balance sheet were shown at AUD$2.8m plus the Right of use assets (for leased assets) were at AUD$3.5m (Net of Lease liabilities).

There were Investments accounted for using the Equity accounting method at $AUD5.6m but ordinarily, they would have been written down to realisable value if the auditors said they needed to be, so I assume no adjustment was required.

They would also be sitting on substantial tax losses, but they haven't been recognised on the balance sheet either.

As you say it is also possible that their buildings are worth more than what's on the balance sheet too. I remember previous posts about this and the consensus was the existing building must be worth more than they paid. The same will be true of the new building under construction if the government incentives they referred to when the decision was made are real.

That puts Net Tangible Assets at AUD$73.2 at December, subtracting a small loss for the 6 months since then, and NTA today couldn't be much below $70m (of which $41m is cash!, $8m is property, plant and equipment and potentially it might be worth much more than that, and there is no tax to pay for years by using the unbooked tax losses)>

At 13c, current market cap is only $54m, representing a very substantial discount to both Net Assets and Net Tangible Assets.

The company calculated NTA per share at 19.40c in the Appendix 4E they lodged for December 2023 (down from 20.66c at Dec 22).

Given all of this, it's hard to understand why sellers outnumber buyers by such a large margin unless the market believes that the small loss I suggested above is actually a big loss, and that losses are likely to continue for a long while to come.

VMT did forecast a loss for CY 2024 so if they were off about how big it is then they would need to update the market but todays announcement made no reference to a loss and in fact only mentioned that the company was Cash Flow positive so I have to assume the P&L situation is no worse than they previously announced.

All my own opinions, DYOR.