Per my comments above, the FEX Shipping costs is correlated to Iron Ore price per FEX financials:
- 62% Fe at average US$200 and Shipping USD$30.4
- 62% Fe at average US$167 and Shipping USD$21.3
I have no idea why it has been suggested that if Iron Ore 62% Fe at average US$140 that VMS will have Shipping Costs of USD$36 (AUD$50 instead of AUD$29) when comparing to FEX.
Nevertheless, let's try VMS having shipping costs at AUD$50 instead of AUD$29 (hence CFR is now AUD$106 to see what we get).
Remember, I strongly believe that if Iron Ore was to be USD$120 that:
- AUD will drop and not be $0.715 hence our Revenue increases
- Shipping Costs will no way be AUD$50 hence our CFR costs reduces
Therefore, this is a very lowball summary:
VMS Revenue and Iron Ore Price
In terms of the VMS Revenue, VMS currently does 1 shipment a month and aiming at 2 shipments per month.
Therefore, the VMS Revenue is not dependent on the Iron Ore price at any given time, it's over the course of 18 months (for example).
Therefore, Iron Ore price could be USD$140 (August) then USD$160 (September) then USD$140 (October) then USD$120 (November) then USD$130 (December), USD$100 (January), USD$140 (February) USD$160 (March) etc.
For me as long as we average US$140 that would be amazing!!!
Either way, the PFS states that VMS only needs the Iron Ore price to be USD$90 to make AUD$30M.
The Managing Director of VMS in the last few recent videos stated that he would be happy if Iron Ore price was USD$100; Iron Ore is currently US$140.
DYOR and only in my opinion, once China stops suppressing the Iron Ore price, the Iron Ore price will move up and like any commodity there will increases and decreases but eventually China needs to kick-start its economy and Iron Ore is the key; full-stop.
I believe Iron Ore is oversold at US$140 but that's just me and I could be wrong, however the beauty of VMS is if Iron Ore price is US$120, we are still very profitable and based on Andrew's view, Iron Ore price at US$100 is still good.
Okay off for the day to watch a bit of footy on TV.
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