I just went through Shaw's recent report on VMY. It misses a lot.
They think the uranium price will rise to USD80/lb. This is way different from the current futures price which is USD35 in 2025. You can lay all the uranium price bulls that have appeared in recent months end to end and they can't still can't move the future price to anything near what is needed for VMY to be successful.
The report does not even mention the shuttered mines in Canada, Cigar Lake and McArthur Mine, as well in Kazakhstan which will re-open if prices rise and keep prices from rising anywhere near what is needed for Mulga Rock to get off the ground. If you are a US utility where would you rather get your uranium from? Known mines in Canada or mines that have not even got off the ground and are half the world away.
The report assumes VMY will raise finance in 2023. Really! Vimy's environmental approvals require the company to 'substantially commence mining before December 2021! You need finance before you can mine! See
https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Ministerial_Statement/Statement%20No%201046.pdfThe report assumes you can rely on the numbers in the DFS Refresh. Good luck with that. Plenty of studies find that mining project assessments are highly likely to be over-optimistic and often wildly optimistic for marginal projects like Mulga Rock.
For more info
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ccwa/pages/203/attachments/original/1608178821/Vimy_MR_briefing_2020.pdf?1608178821https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/mulga-still-does-not-rock/
