The Voice Over Broadband Wave is now beginning to lift off.
The plain old telephone service providers are in for more bad news as they are about to
get hit by a wave of defections that could make the migration to wireless seem tame.
Now we have a way to ride the Voice Over Broadband Wave—8x8 Inc. (NASDAQ:
EGHT).
Many of you have heard of the Vonage VOB system but not as many have heard of 8x8.
This is going to change, fast.
The VOB business wave is now starting to swell, and the technology is now 98% as good
as wireline. “It’s beginning to transition from something only a real Internet-savvy
person would do into something ordinary folks can do,” said Jupiter Research analyst Joe
Laszlo in a USA Today article earlier this year.
This is the key. It’s now a service for non-nerds. The number of U.S. households making
Internet calls with standard phones is expected to grow from about 100,000 now to 4
million in 2007 according to In-Stat/MDR figures from the same story. We expect faster
adoption -- 6 million users by the end of 2005.
The only catch to using VOB is that you need a broadband connection, which costs about
$40 a month and is readily available across the nation. (Jupiter projects these
connections will double to about 40 million in 2007.) Best of all, your grandmother could
use the service and install it herself.
Another Beneficiary of Number Portability
Now, thanks to number portability, you can switch your home number to VOB—that’s
BIG.
With 8x8 you pick up the phone, hear the dial tone and dial the telephone number of
your choice. There are no extra numbers to dial or special routines to follow. It’s that
simple. You don’t have to be an engineer to use it.
And look at the pricing: $19.95 for all-you-can-eat long-distance across the U.S. and
Canada; $49.95 for unlimited international calling—unbelievable. Many immigrants or
other foreign visitors in the U.S. spend $250–$400 a month calling home.
The company also offers unlimited Packet8 VideoPhone service for $19.95 per
month, which delivers high-quality, full-motion video and clear, delay-free
audio connection for both residential and business customers.
How It Works
You can be up and running within minutes of receiving the 8x8 package. They send you
everything you need to get phone service, right down to the extra cable wire. Best of all,
there’s no technician, no wiring in the walls and no technical experience needed! Setup
usually takes less than five minutes.
In more technical terms, 8x8’s Packet8 service uses the free phone adapter they send to
customers to convert their voice from an analog signal to a digital signal. The digital
signal can then be sent over a high-speed Internet connection because it is recognized
as data.
When someone calls, they dial a regular phone number. Behind the scenes, the number
looks very much like an e-mail address. This number instructs the call to travel over the
Internet and through the network to the phone adapter, the phone rings, and it’s no
different from a regular call on the current networks.
This is proven technology. Long-distance companies have used VOB’s cousin, Voice over
Internet Protocol (VOIP), to transmit many of their calls since the mid-’90s, and about
10% of international calls used the technology. Plus, prepaid calling cards that charge a
few pennies a minute use VOIP networks.
Counting the Profits
Given 8x8’s focus on business and residential phone service without the distraction of
video conferencing, the business really rolls.
The VOB wave is beginning to attract normal people—not just the tech-savvy early
adopters. This is the kind of ten-bagger I love!
We want to ride the VOB wave with 8x8. Buy EGHT under $2.00.
VOIP — The Big Picture
While 8x8's focus is on end-user household and small business VOIP service, we've got
another company that provides the necessary equipment to help build and maintain
large networks. Sonus Networks (SONS) makes hardware and software that public
network providers -- including long-distance carriers, ISPs and cable operators — use to
provide voice and data communications services to their subscribers.
According to our latest ChangeWave Alliance Corporate VOIP survey, 25% of
respondents say their company currently deploys VOIP. Significantly, another 21% say
their company is considering deploying a VOIP system/application. Of those respondents
whose company is using VOIP, 38% say they are using it as a replacement for
traditional phone service. Another 21% say their company will increase spending on
VOIP applications/equipment in the next six months, and 12% say they are considering
an increase.
Our latest ChangeWave Alliance VOIP and Consumer Home Telecom Survey results show
home VOIP use surging in both the local and long distance telephone markets. A total of
14% of respondents now use VOIP at home -- double the amount in our September
2004 survey, while another 22% plan on using it within the next year. Importantly, VOIP
is no longer considered a supplementary home phone service -- half of current VOIP
users now report they use it as their primary or only home telephone service.
This is good news for Sonus, as they provide the necessary equipment to help
companies build carrier-class network solutions to lead the movement of telephony from
circuit to packet networks and to enable a new generation of packet-based applications
for integrated voice and data services.
Sonus’ advanced Open Services Architecture is the industry’s leading packet voice
infrastructure, enabling a full range of carrier applications and enhanced services and
providing end-to-end solutions addressing a full range of carrier applications.
Its VOIP infrastructure solutions, including media gateways, softswitches and network
management systems, have been deployed in various service provider networks
worldwide, including long distance carriers, local exchange carriers, Internet service
providers, wireless operators, cable operators, international telephone companies, and
carriers that provide services to other carriers. Sonus' customers include AOL, AT&T,
BellSouth, Qwest and Verizon, just to name a few.
A Growing Wave
Market research conducted by Dell'Oro Group for 2004 showed that Sonus grew 117%
year-over-year in the total carrier IP telephony market, compared with overall market
growth of 26%. According to the report, Sonus gained more market share than any
other vendor in this category, increasing its share from 4.7% in 2003 to 8.1% in 2004.
For 2005, Dell'Oro Group forecasts 32% growth for the total carrier IP Telephony
market.
Sonus' revenues for fiscal year 2004 were $170.7 million compared with $93.2 million
for fiscal year 2003, an increase of 83%. During the first quarter of 2005, Sonus
announced four new customer deployments in North America and Europe. Sonus'
second-quarter 2005 profit nearly doubled from the year ago period due to stronger
sales and demand for its VOIP products. Sonus reported a second-quarter profit of $9.7
million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $4.9 million, or 2 cents a share, during the
year-ago period. Revenue rose to $58.1 million from $42.4 million a year ago.
Sonus is the purest pure play in VOIP equipment land. SONS is profitable, growing
rapidly and should really thrive in the cable and international VOIP build-out that is
under way.
Sonus is another way in which we will ride the VOB wave. Buy SONS under $5.
Copyright © 2005 ChangeWave Research, LLC. All rights reserved.
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