Shall we have a little squint at the valuation ? If you take the...

Shall we have a little squint at the valuation ? If you take the average between Bell Pottter and Morgans which assumes they will increase revenue $ 18.2 million between the end of this last financial year and the end of next one .... i.e over a 24 month period, that puts the company on 177 x FY25.

So to get that revenue growth they need to sign a very significant number of contracts (using Quest09 method of quoting 5 year TCVs) that would require a TCV of 91 million to be signed over the next 2 years. While no doubt they can sign contracts, I think that is meaningfully beyond what is possible and requires a step change over the quantum they have been able to deliver historically. Anyway, even if they are to do that you have a business on 177x earnings at the end of FY25. Both analysts have the company as loss making and FCF negative for this FY despite having revenue projection almost 10% in advance of the company guidance of $41 million.

Leaving aside the likelihood of a CR there appears to be very little room for any sales misses from a valuation perspective..