thanks for that 4/8 yr cycle list. i have printed it out for ref.
i will continue to call a drawn out bear market into next year 2007.
when did it start ? i could take the peak of the axo of 5318.2 on 11/05 but the non miners were finding it a bit tough well before that. the xnj (industrials are more consistently reliable imo) peaked at 5602.5 on 27/03 (ie some 6 + weeks earlier) and i'd prefer to use that as the start of the down for oz. i cover many factors into my thinking. to put it all down would take ages. fwiw imo this is all about the fed getting it's house in order. the rest will follow. once the fed is comfortable that it has turned the tide on its balance of trade and budgets then i will reassess the world at large before re-entering the market in general. i'll add shares steadily. I'm assuming this works out as i expect. it may not. some left field event may occur, things may recover more quickly than i expect but i am ready, even now, if necessary. Oct 06 might be a good time to get back in. ie well before the xmas / new yr rally. this rally could falter badly into feb / march so i'll be aware of that as a possibility. all my own 'feel' and nothing more.
unfortunately, i do get to miss quite a few posts. apart from the limited time i have available, the other factor is the time difference oz / spain. hc stop current posts at page 25 ? therefore, on a very busy day the earlier posts are only in their respective posters archives. I note your archives do not exist and assume you have elected this ?
for me, so far so good.
i feel the oz mkt punters were too complacent over the past few trading days and a big knock backwards mon or tues would not surprise me.
i learnt today that some eastern europeans who took out mortgages on spanish properties with 120% valuations for 100% loans have done runners. the banks have now backed off 100% loans on toppy valuations. there are heaps of this sort of thing out there in the world market place and it has got to be sorted out. the momentum is in place to do this.
