SYA 1.56% 3.3¢ sayona mining limited

I would also like to add another angle to this argument.And it...

  1. 1,832 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 9477
    I would also like to add another angle to this argument.

    And it really dawned on me after hearing what the fund managers had to say about why they wouldn't consider
    investing in Sayona at the moment.

    Their deep dive into Sayona, of course closely examines various aspects, including the management team.

    Understandably, It is one of the primary drivers that support their investment decision into a company.

    The fact the we have not secured an offtake for our 50% of the output does not surprise them.
    They point out to me, that Vulcan, Liontown and many other incumbent producers have signed offtakes years ahead of production....OEM"s, chemical companies etc....

    Let me also point out, that there is nothing wrong with our concentrate..its world class.

    In fact the spodumene we produce, is favoured.
    The quality, impurities and concentration level is perfectly acceptable by industry standards.
    But it is IRA compliant and its ESG credentials are beyond reproach.
    Something, not a lot of producers can offer..

    So where is the disconnect here....why isn't everyone clamouring to get their hands on as much of our product as possible?

    Did we already have an offtake on the table which was torpedoed by Brown and Buckler?

    Anecdotally, there was, as evidenced by Dougie and the boards messaging of this at numerous times earlier this year.

    Now there is nothing....and we sell into the spot market.
    Not necessarily a bad thing, and our revenues durng this part of the lows in the lithium commodity cycle, are actually quite decent.

    And you are right, no one but the board and prospective clients know the details of that deal.

    But what it has demonstrated to the fund managers and the markets at large, is the
    inability of our current board, to crunch a deal.

    To negotiate suitable terms in the BEST INTEREST OF SAYONA AND ITS SHAREHOLDERS.

    With BL out of the way, it puts a spotlight on Buckler, who hates any attention and chooses to sit in the shadows and direct traffic.
    It puts a spotlight on Brown, who is a great operational guy, but does not have the greatest track record of business acumen, negotiating offtakes, finance and fending off agressors.

    These guys don't think 5 moves ahead, they don't even think 1 move ahead.....
    Did they understand the repercussions and blowback on them and the company when they sent BL packing?
    NO
    Did they foresight the spotlight and focus this would bring to their own history, abilities and lack of success?
    NO
    They are reactionary.....the market knows this, and they have done this to themselves....

    Unwittingly may I add.

    Buckler has never even had his photo in our Annual report....or on the website, and has been forced to do this just a few weeks ago , for the first time.
    He chooses, from what I am told mostly due to his reputation, to sit on the sidelines, out of view and pull the strings.
    So he must be hating this current interest in his past and his abilities, and must be hating having to post his photo in the report.
    If you have seen it, he surely doesn't look happy!

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5739/5739646-420cb0064e85e927c6bcc8a17d817311.jpg
    Hi mate, thanks for popping in....

    The fundies are looking at these guys and saying-
    " I am not investing in these guys.
    They cant even stitch together a offtake, when other incumbents are sold out years in advance??
    In what is widely touted as the hottest commodity on the planet with analysts predicting we are at early beginnings of the next super cycle.
    It's even IRA compliant and has the a big green environmental ESG tick....and they still cant negotiate a deal? WTF?"

    This is no joke.
    This is what I have been told.

    So its beyond the offtake.
    Its the ability, the skill-set, the business acumen and the lack of MONGREL-the killer instinct in them, to make it happen.
    That's why we haven't seen an offtake.

    And then where does that leave the PLL offtake.
    A deal that was done as many have stated, to pay our pound of flesh to PLL for a couple of years until carboante, and secure NAL.
    But with a built in caveat that the deal will be reduced to little to no PLL product, once all our concentrate went to feed the carbonate plant. In the best interest of Sayona and the JV.

    These same fundies are telling me that if we ever had a hope of altering the terms of this deal, these ARE NOT the guys that will make this happen.
    And then when another fundy is telling me Keith is considering NAL NOT GOING DOWNSTREAM by 2026 and just paying the penalty to Quebec, you kind of start believing this is a possibility, and our board in its current form will not have the strategy, skillset, chess play and Aussie Mongrel in them to STOP IT HAPPENING.

    And they are right.
    As much as I didn't want to believe that Keith would have the guts to do defy the Quebec and Canadian governments. I am now starting to believe, that he may. I mean, the PLL fan boys have raised this a few time...of, well just pay the fine and be way ahead...you know the usual suspects....I think they even calculated it.....

    But I never believed Keith would have th guts to do it.
    And now, it seems the PLL's house of cards is starting to topple and the walls are closing in on Keith.
    NC, tied up by militant locals, generational farmers who will not yield.
    And if Ghana didn't have enough problems, it is coming under even further external pressure, to the extent that they may even lose control of this project.
    Keith better start manoeuvring and get his M&A army mobilised, because the South Africans and the Chinese may be coming for him.
    The point is NAL is his lifeline.....and he will fight for it.

    Do we have the team in place, who thinks 5 moves ahead and can head off any threat, can negotiate now that PLL is looking more vulnerable than ever?

    Do we have the team that can secure an offtake on favourable terms and can have the strategy, vision , foresight, intellect, AND AUSSIE MONGREL, to take us forward?

    From The fundies I have spoken to, it's a resounding NO, and I believe the market at large agrees.

    And so do I....
 
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