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01/05/22
20:34
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Originally posted by rustys33:
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The sheer scalability and potential profit margin combined with being in a hot sector make it pretty easy to come up with some pretty astronomical numbers. I have been extremely bullish for years. Ideally, I would have loved to have ridden RAP for a decade all the way to $10+. Given that the viability of the company is still in question and commercialization is slower than expected (There will probably be another $5 million raise I suspect), it would be hard to knock back a guaranteed 50c. I think this 50c really is based more on my own circumstances, historical trading (remember the spike to 35c not too long ago), and previous buy price than any intrinsic value of the company. I also base this on predicting it being quite feasible for RAP to bring in $10 million with a gross profit of $5 million in two to three years. If you put those figures at the same multiples as PME (Price-earnings ratio = 130 and price to revenue ratio = 83) you would get to the $500-$800 million market cap. Another factor I consider is I think once Alodokter numbers come in and there is a clear path to cash flow neutrality, I'd expect this to be trading in the 20c range anyway. So this is my alternative scenario ie what if the deal falls through? We would be selling ourselves short even in the absence of a takeover offer. On the flip side, cash provides certainty and the resources to find new opportunities. Below is roughly where I think RAP will be over the next few years. So I'd probably accept something in the 50c-$1 range based on these numbers. At least at this range compared to my 10-year forecast, that only leaves a ten-bagger on the table rather than a 100-bagger. 1 year forcast - 20c 2 year forecast - 50c 3 year forecast - $1 10 year forecast - $10
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I think a lot of it will depend on how long the double blind tests take etc to get the official stamp of approval for Covid screening and bring it to a commercial ready product. Once that occurs (if it does), then I think SP quickly shoots up from there in a short span of time. I think your predictions on SP are a good guess if we’re just talking about Dx and the take up on this. Covid screening would accelerate everything.