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08/05/22
16:19
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Originally posted by HarryKane
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I will definitely be voting YES. The deal more or less turned out as I expected.
There has been a collapse in sentiment for ADN at precisely the wrong time IMHO. The ML is due soon, the DFS in Q1, 2022 post merger and more BoAs will no doubt be announced in 2022 as will other products e.g., cosmetics, high purity silica etc.
Clearly there has been a significant change in the DSO market. I was expecting the IRR & NPV numbers in the DFS, based only on PRM & CRM and lower initial production, to disappoint the market but now DSO lowers upfront equity contribution and there has been a ~20% increase in Stage 1 production.
The real upside, apart from PRM, CRM & DSO, is the concrete app (HRM). In March this year delays on this front were part of the reason for the collapse in the ADN SP. By March 2022, everything that we were expecting on HRM could be in place: JORC, contracts, PFS for a high margin, low-cost product. James Marsh has said numerous times that producing HRM is a simple process.
There is a lot of confusion about “potential” for Natural Nanotech. But ATM that is all it is. Hopefully we will know more about carbon capture by mid-2022. HPA is closer than NNPL to realising value and it has always been my contention that the downstream processing (high value add) would be 100% AND so we now get to share in that upside. I know others have a different opinion.
Re: Breakaway, many have an opinion as to valuation. My only comment is that Peake & Denison represents great blue sky and it is interesting that photos of the area featured prominently in the AR.
I don’t currently hold any ADN but am excited about a re-entry via the takeover. Yes, there have been disappointments and setbacks but here we are 6-12 months later (from delays to DFS, HRM, CO2 capture plant etc) and so close to things finally falling into place. Given how long most of us have been invested what is another 3-4 month wait? By Easter 2022 things might have reset to where the market thought developments had progressed in March, 2021. There was a lot of optimism back then, just as there is plenty of pessimism now. We lost one year, not a decade!
Apologies if I’ve done more than answer your question and made this more of an ADN post but we will all be ADN shareholders in the new year.
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Where you at with your ADN now Harry ? Interested to know as I have read and followed alot of your early post regarding the intrinsic value held now solely inside ADN. Ive added significantly to my position here as has a friend of mine on the Top holders list.