Pythag - your comment...
"Not accepting 45c could drag things out longer, and we run the risk of losing funding or getting caught up in global economic troubles."
I would add the African risk as well.
I think it is a question of what you get if you are right and what you lose if you are wrong. 50 - 55 cents or 18 cents...to 0.
It would be a BIG assumption to make that HL would go, oh ok make it 55/57 given the way things have progressed.
I think you are sating that the probability is for completion but it is the quantum win/loss that needs to be considered as well.
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