I want to get a gist of what people here are gonna vote in March regarding the takeover.
Handy table as per
@Fredbear2 of what the situation is at the moment.
SQM + Hancock has 19.42 + 18.37 = 37.79% that will not be voting
As for the other 62.21%, Creasy + Adelphi + Directors have 12.84 + 10.15 + 2.1 = 25.09%, effective interest is 25.09/62.21 =
40.33% that is voting yes
MIN's position is yet unclear and can debate what they will vote all day but at the end of the day their interest is 13.56/62.21 =
21.79% Retail including the rest of top 20 is 62.21 - (13.56 + 12.84 + 10.15 + 2.10) = 23.56, effective interest is 23.56/62.21 =
37.87%
Excluding SQM and Hancock, 75% needs to vote yes to pass the resolution. As this is for ballpark estimate purposes, I'll assume 100% eligible voters vote.
AZS has 458,679,575 shares at present
If MIN votes
YES, that means 62.13% major shareholders has voted yes.
Rest of shareholders' effective interest is 37.87% (23.56% of total shares),
This means if 71,324,674 shares of retail holders vote NO, resolution will be blocked, a very unlikely scenario.
If Min vote
NO, that means 40.33% major shareholders has voted yes.
Rest of shareholders' effective interest is still 37.87% (23.56% of total shares).
This means if 9,131,442 shares of retail holders vote NO, No reaches 25% and the resolution will be blocked successfully. This is much more achievable but it relies on MIN voting NO as well as some top 20's to join in too.
Also this is assuming 100% voting turnout, we are going to need a little more than 9.1 mil shares for buffer.
I am personally preparing to part with my shares come March-April 2024 but I remain hopeful - I am wondering how the shareholders of HC will influence the outcome.
I'll start - 400,000 shares voting NO
(20min delay)