ok I have added a few scenarios with Saas growth of 30% , 50% , 75% & 100%. What I can now see is the market is currently giving us a PE multiple of 3.5 which is very low see link https://stockrow.com/CRM/competitors Salesforce has a PE of 243 . Looking at the data I would say to avoid another small CR we need to see SaaS growth above 50% or costs need to come down and at the moment is probably the main reason for the suppressed SP and a PE of only 3.5. Sustained Q on Q growth even at 30% should be rewarded with an increasing PE multiplier which I have guessed at but I think it is what the market would do . So the main focus for Rusty is to get that growth number for SaaS up above 50% without increasing cost . To be fair to him this is what he has been doing with the 4 pillars just how well he has been doing we will find out.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 Column 15 Column 16 0 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings per Q Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP 1 0.075 0.43 30% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8 2 Jan-17 0.10 0.51 30% 20% 0.61 1.53 1.53 0.61 2.43 22% 3.75 9.1 4.0 13 1.9 3 Apr-17 0.13 0.61 30% 20% 0.74 1.56 1.56 0.74 2.96 48% 4 11.8 2.4 14 2.0 4 Jul-17 0.16 0.73 30% 20% 0.90 1.59 1.59 0.90 3.60 80% 4.25 15.3 0.8 16 2.3 5 Oct-17 0.21 0.88 30% 20% 1.10 1.62 1.62 1.10 4.38 119% 4.5 19.7 5.5 25 3.6 6 Jan-18 0.28 1.06 30% 20% 1.34 1.66 1.66 1.34 5.34 167% 5 26.7 3.8 31 4.4 7 Apr-18 0.36 1.27 30% 20% 1.63 1.69 1.69 1.63 6.52 226% 5.5 35.9 2.2 38 5.5 8 Jul-18 0.47 1.52 30% 20% 1.99 1.72 0.40 0.67 2.68 299% 15 40.2 0.4 41 5.9 9 Oct-18 0.61 1.83 30% 20% 2.44 1.76 0.00 0.68 2.73 388% 20 54.5 0.0 55 7.9 10 11 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP 12 0.075 0.43 50% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8 13 Jan-17 0.11 0.51 50% 20% 0.62 1.53 1.53 0.62 2.49 25% 4.5 11.2 4.0 15 2.2 14 Apr-17 0.17 0.61 50% 20% 0.78 1.56 1.56 0.78 3.12 56% 5.5 17.2 2.4 20 2.8 15 Jul-17 0.25 0.73 50% 20% 0.99 1.59 1.59 0.99 3.95 98% 6.5 25.7 0.8 26 3.8 16 Oct-17 0.38 0.88 50% 20% 1.26 1.62 1.62 1.26 5.04 152% 7.5 37.8 5.5 43 6.2 17 Jan-18 0.57 1.06 50% 20% 1.63 1.66 1.66 1.63 6.51 225% 8.5 55.3 3.8 59 8.5 18 Apr-18 0.85 1.27 50% 20% 2.12 1.69 1.69 2.12 8.49 325% 10 84.9 2.2 87 12.5 19 Jul-18 1.28 1.52 50% 20% 2.80 1.72 0.40 1.48 5.93 461% 20 118.5 0.4 119 17.1 20 Oct-18 1.92 1.83 50% 20% 3.75 1.76 0.00 1.99 7.97 650% 35 278.9 0.0 279 40.2 21 22 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP 23 0.075 0.43 75% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8 24 Jan-17 0.13 0.51 75% 20% 0.64 1.53 1.53 0.64 2.57 28% 5 12.8 4.0 17 2.4 25 Apr-17 0.23 0.61 75% 20% 0.84 1.56 1.56 0.84 3.37 68% 7 23.6 2.4 26 3.7 26 Jul-17 0.40 0.73 75% 20% 1.14 1.59 1.59 1.14 4.55 127% 10 45.5 0.8 46 6.7 27 Oct-17 0.70 0.88 75% 20% 1.58 1.62 0.80 0.76 3.04 217% 20 60.9 0.0 61 8.8 28 Jan-18 1.23 1.06 75% 20% 2.29 1.66 0.00 0.63 2.53 358% 30 75.9 0.0 76 10.9 29 Apr-18 2.15 1.27 75% 20% 3.42 1.69 0.00 1.73 6.94 585% 35 242.8 0.0 243 35.0 30 Jul-18 3.77 1.52 75% 20% 5.29 1.72 0.00 3.57 14.28 959% 40 571.2 0.0 571 82.2 31 Oct-18 6.60 1.83 75% 20% 8.42 1.76 0.00 6.67 26.67 1585% 45 1200.1 0.0 1200 172.8 32 33 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP 34 0.075 0.43 100% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8 35 Jan-17 0.15 0.51 100% 20% 0.66 1.53 1.53 0.66 2.64 32% 5 13.2 4.0 17 2.5 36 Apr-17 0.30 0.61 100% 20% 0.91 1.56 1.56 0.91 3.65 82% 7 25.5 2.4 28 4.0 37 Jul-17 0.60 0.73 100% 20% 1.33 1.59 1.59 1.33 5.34 167% 10 53.4 0.8 54 7.8 38 Oct-17 1.20 0.88 100% 20% 2.08 1.62 0.80 1.26 5.03 316% 20 100.6 0.0 101 14.5 39 Jan-18 2.40 1.06 100% 20% 3.46 1.66 0.00 1.80 7.21 592% 30 216.2 0.0 216 31.1 40 Apr-18 4.80 1.27 100% 20% 6.07 1.69 0.00 4.38 17.52 1114% 35 613.2 0.0 613 88.3 41 Jul-18 9.60 1.52 100% 20% 11.12 1.72 0.00 9.40 37.60 2125% 40 1504.0 0.0 1504 216.6 42 Oct-18 19.20 1.83 100% 20% 21.03 1.76 0.00 19.27 77.08 4105% 45 3468.6 0.0 3469 499.5
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