Hey Rob, thanks for having a crack at this.
I've been a bit quiet on the threads/disenchanted with this stock since we narrowly failed to get Russell to change the AGM resolutions regarding the free options for himself and Leanne based over a timeline of three years. That was a rort when those of us who supported the company at the 3c cap raise have a 40% loss and only 18 months to run on our 6 cent options.
Full disclosure is I sold my options at $0.01 cent. I did have a moderate parcel of options to trade that I bought at 0.06 cents, but I sold it at the same price after the most recent quarterly came out.
My thoughts on the above is that all inputs in your calculations are overly optimistic. Dash Digital was meant to be churning out a steady $2 million or so a year, but the quarterlies have actually shown declining revenues from this main earner for the overall company. I can't see them magically growing at 20% qoq, sorry.
Since we don't get any announcements other than quarterlies, it is those that I'm working off, as IMO what comes out of Russell's mouth and what actually happens are two different things.
Velpic has the growth potential, but even that has been patchy/slower than projected by Russell to date.
Looking at your calculations, you can see how option holders are likely to get fisted, with Leanne (10 million freebies) and Russell (5 million freebies) likely to hit their lowball target of 6c if this company is still around in three years time.
However, it is not all doom and gloom from me for once. Some of our peers have had an interesting day:
RFN has shot up 29% today after finally announcing some good news.
1PG is more interesting to me. Today Merchant (substantial holders of VPC) have taken action to remove the directors of the company and use its ample cash backing for something else.
1PG have an estimated $28 million cash on hand and the market cap is similar. Perhaps Merchant will also move to take action if Russell and Leanne stuff around too much longer without results? Perhaps the addition of the stripped out 1PG business could be a match with VPC?
We've been quick to say that Merchant has been a negative influence on the SP, but in all reality, it is just retail holders who are growing tired of no news and no revenue who are bailing at this point. I can't say I blame them and if my holding was smaller I would be first in queue.
Whatever the case, something from left field needs to occur for this stock to re-rate. They either need to start shooting the lights out with genuine revenue figures in black and white (not Russell speak), or they need to be aware that not all shareholders are happy to sit by while the directors milk the capital dry with good salaries and their own definition of "performance" shares.
If someone is feeling cheeky, I would like to see an email sent to Russell including the 1PG announcement just to keep him on his toes. I'm not putting my effort into it because I've already tried to have reasoned discussion with Russell for next to no result.
As far as I am concerned, he is paddling his own canoe now and unless he starts paddling quick and wins us a gold medal, he might find a few people on the riverbank lobbing rocks in his general direction!
Some of the other guys have mentioned that Leanne's other ASX interest in BIG is going great guns on some strong numbers, so it seems to me that our general sector is finally seeing a bit more interest again.
Unfortunately for us, VPC is getting none of that interest. We are sitting on close enough to all-time lows and frequently looking like dropping off the cliff if anyone gets antsy and drops a decent holding.
I don't want to realise my loss just yet as I think it is worth giving the company more time, but one thing I will say is that any time we try and project revenues, we are only surprised to the downside.
Maybe it will take a Merchant of the world to get this ship going at full steam. Where it is headed I have no idea, but unless Russell and Leanne start earning their keep, they might find themselves with a merchant mutiny on their hands.
All IMO, DYOR, I have no idea (otherwise my average buy price wouldn't be 3c).
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