vpg - about to go north permanently?, page-5

Bear and others that have posted here. Good reading from all of you.

Here is my interpretation of the current situation.

Debt confirmed in place for circa 18 months - Huge security boost an should add to investor confidence leading into the results pres, as others have said.

What else could drive of impinge on the share price from here?

Lets dissect the business by operating areas first:

Property Ownership (+) - prices have been hard hit by the GFC and general downswing in property cycle that has happened pretty much world wide. As you said Bear VPG have limited exposure to Direct Property Ownership in Europe. Mainly some small tradeable assets in the UK.
I believe at a whole that this ownership (majority in Aus) provides a solid platform for growth into the future as they do own some decent assets. My one concern is (more than the piddly amount of direct in the UK) that they have a fair exposure to bulky goods / homemaker type RE in Aus and this could be hard hit for some time dependant on housing and the overall economy. (limited concern here people)

Ownership of Property through Co-investment. (+/-) - It appears that the softening in yields has almost bottomed in most places around the world (US and some eastern Euro, possibly Greece also may be the odd ones out). Please bear in mind this is broad brush and some specific areas would not display this. This should lead to improving NTA's for some of these funds. However we dont know about covenants or headrooms etc so there may be some Devil in the detail here but all in all, I would expect them to start to positively effect earnings in the short to medium term. Also there may be a chance to realise the VPG position in some of those funds and free up some capital for further debt sureity a progressive expansion. (Goldfields development).

VCS (+) - If I remember correctly (and I may not) this area of VPG has been all but written off. This would say to me that any improvement in the property market should allow VPG to increasingly recover some of their positions, thereby improving on the 0 stance that it has here.

Development (+/-) - VPG has good capability here and has some interesting projects that should lead to decent value creation however it may not do much in the short term in Australia. There will be opportunities to leverage from this know how in the medium term but it might be a drag in the shorter term. At least we are looking like we might be able to move further stock on hand in the shorter term.

All in all it appears to be a positive outlook for VPG, especially when you see the share price at the current market levels. We still need to be vigilant about debt and capital, however we are definitely starting to get to the point where management can make some decisive decisions to set VPG up for a great future. (I would like to see the debt extended further than 11 but hey good result none the less. Especially with the drop in cost.)

Good luck all, may you make a fortune on this one. God knows some of us need it.