I think one factor in favour of your argument is that VRC seem to have worked quite hard to get a modest off-take with an average of 1000tpa over 5 years.
I also note that VRC have diverged from the grandiosity of their PFS plans of 170tpa and now say they are looking to be a small scale producer and get their ore processed by a third party (in the early stages at least).
I just don't think it's likely that this mystical 100+ktpa off-take is coming - the only purported one that I can recall was TON but that never eventuated into reality.
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