My understanding is 50% of the steel market went to niobium...

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Troydt

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05/02/24

10:33

Post #: 72236936
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Originally posted by RhysT: ↑

Hey Troydt, do you know if there was actually full compliance with the rebar standards introduced in 2018? I remember it was after that announcement (even before the standards were introduced) that the vanadium price spiked to all time highs, but had very much cooled off by the date which the standards needed to be applied.
I may be remembering incorrectly but there was speculation the date was pushed back for the new standards? Or it wasn't being inforced or something so we didn't see the expected demand, and with companies stockpiling just ahead of it, vanadium buying dried up for a long period and V price returned to norm pretty quickly.
I may just be inventing half of that in my head as I did not follow the markets too closely that year...

But clearly we see the impact on vanadium price when changes are made to how much of it is needed in steel, so anythink like 2018 and AVL have a good backdrop for releasing news this year, that won't get ignored hopefully.

That at least will make a nice change for us compared TMT's market releases.

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My understanding is 50% of the steel market went to niobium instead of vanadium and then the environmental inspections didn't get enforced like they should of.

Grade 1 and Grade 2 standards disappeared with grade 3 rebar the standard at 0.003% Vanadium per tonne of steel.

This around my prediction is grade 3 will be scrapped and Grade 4 will be the new standard at 0.006% Vanadium per tonne of steel.

Also steel companies are transitioning from Carbon Manganese steel (high energy input) to vanadium based steels (minimal energy input) per tonne of steel. So the financial incentive is there for Steel customers to increase vanadium consumtpion.

In Summary if they stick to my prediction vanadium consumption in Steel will double from here on in at a time when VRFBs are coming in hot.

Bushveld minerals in South Africa close to closure and Largo is 25% production reduction due to depleting ore.

Any structural market changes on the demand side will cause vanadium to moon shot.

Makes for exciting times. That is the market picture I am seeing.

Last edited by Troydt: 05/02/24

AVL Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
24 Upvote

5 Great analysis

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