Many s/holders and some brokers got cold feet due to VRL's steep decline in Feb16, due partly/mainly to declining film distribution sales (DVDs etc). The share's rollercoaster ride (no pun intended) throughout 2014 and 2015 probably also spooked some holders.
I had been watching this stock throughout (wouldn't touch it at $7 and $8) and bought in during May and June this year when it finally looked like it found a bottom -- one of my rare and hopefully fruitful episodes of patient investing. Share price has since increased only modestly; it's still far below the consensus target of $6.33 (7 brokers -- same brokers who had a target price of $7.85 back in Feb15). But the $5 low could be tested again if VRL's results disappoint this week.
I'm optimistic (obviously) about VRL longer term, but not convinced or worried whether distribution sales have improved. VRL has plenty of pipeline activity ranging from theme parks in China and Queensland to film production and studio leasing activities. It has some degree of diversification to offset the risk of each business alone (flop films, poor weather for theme parks, etc). Still, VRL's sp could cause sea sickness and, even with its comfy dividend --isn't exactly defensive (some risk the dividend could be reduced).
VRL Price at posting:
$5.31 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
