IMHO We will only know the mkt is peaking when the local mkt starts to consolidate the players...until then enjoy the ride upwards and onwards, with inventories at alltime lows we can only keep rising anyway.
Today's official LME nickel closing - set after second ring in morning trading - cash - $24.00/lb - 3 month buyer - $23.11/lb (53.05% higher than 1/1/07). Nickel did the clay pigeon today. In early trading it shot up, reaching a new record high, then for the rest of the day, fell sharply. No real news that we can find that would have caused traders to bail, so we assume it was primarily profit taking. Anytime the Federal Reserve meets, funds tend to get nervous up to the announcement. While no one expects the Fed to change its interest rate, every word Chairman Bernanke speaks will be analyzed and dissected for clues to future economic conditions. There are two schools of thought about what, if any, effect this might have on the coarse of future pricing. We tend to agree with the side that feels the overall US economic picture is becoming less and less of a factor in determining the price of nickel. As long as worldwide demand stays strong, and worldwide supply stays in a catch-up mode, then nickel prices could remain high. Those of us who watch nickel pricing daily, look at what is happening in China first, the rest of the world, second. Three month nickel had a real hard time breaking thru and maintaining a position above the $50,000/tonne mark. It held out for a few days, but today, it slipped back below the level. Now what will happen is on everyone's mind. If you want to play detective, we would suggest you do as a trained law enforcement officer would. You can get a hundred witness', or analysts, in a room and ask what happened, or will happen, and you will get a hundred different versions. This is a good starting point, but the physical evidence is the key to a conviction. And the best evidence in this investigation, is the LME stocked nickel inventories. Today, 3 month nickel ended the day at $22.36/lb ($49,295/tonne) (Dow Jones - more)
MCR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
