Nice analysis,
Just adding to the discussion on the macro picture:
Im my opinion Telstra's strength lies in it's expansive mobile towers and the utility nature of the regional support. This will always have government backing and or subsidy and the smaller operators don't have the budgets or desire to support the regions. Due to Australia's expanse telecom will always be dominated by one player unless a new technology allows for coverage no matter your location.
Telecom in it's nature is cyclical and price orientated - new tech, low comp, high margins - new entrants, high comp, low margins - mergers, acquisitions, liquidation - low competition, high margins and the cycle begins again. Telstra as the highest margin player will survive this cycle, however one will go - optus/tpg or vodafone.
VTG's Telstra network is regionally focused, and this should hold them in good stead for years to come.
Store network on this link:
http://www.vitagroup.com.au/content/careers/locations
I also note that Telstra rather compressing margins is now adding value through foxtel subscriptions, apple music, higher data and the like.
$600m of sales goes through VTGs doors every years, that tells Telstra at some level customers want the retail support. Everytime i walk past a Telstra store it is generally buzzing with customers.
I like VTG due to the long term nature of telecom growth and consumption, it's stock price under cyclical pressure, it's high quality low debt management, and nice dividend yield.
