From most souces I've come across venous ulcer prevelance ranges...

From most souces I've come across venous ulcer prevelance ranges between 0.1% to 0.3% rather consistantly across countries.

What does this mean for Vitrogro?

Say we take an average prevalence of 0.2% and we just target the European market population approx 700m and assume a 10% market penetration, at $80 a tube for an average 10 week course with a net profit margin of 0.2 reasonable since we where at one point seeking a partner paying royalties of 0.3 i.e 0.3 x tax of 0.3 = 0.21 (you would think we would be after something similar if not more going it alone otherwise we would have lowered our requirements), and a P/E of 20 with 300m shares this allows us to form the following.

Cases = 0.002 x 700,000,000 = 1,400,000
Penetration = 1,400,000 x 0.1 = 140,000
Revenue = 140,000 x 80 x 10 = $112,000,000
Net Profit = 112,000,000 x 0.2 = $22,400,000
EPS = 22,400,000 / 300,000,000 = 7.47 cents
Price = 0.0747 x 20 = $1.49

This is rather a conservative to moderate price given the potential in US and ROW markets, and its use on other ulcers i.e diabetic and pressure.


Do your own research. / These calculations are best conservative to moderate estimates and should not be relied upon as financial advice.