G'day
deepcoverpoint - You said:
"I wished I had seen this in 2020." I hope you land one (or more) of these life-changing stocks. I'll share a personal story FWIW. It has a few personal insights, and some comments re a few negative people, who IMO do a disservice to readers while implying they are just presenting another view. Clearly, none of the criticisms are directed to you.
There'll be another oneThe short version of the story is this kind of stunning success has happened before - e.g. with FMG - is happening again - with VUL - and will do so with some rare others, too. It takes research, thought and conviction to hold on to enough for a big payday but it can happen. Maintain the thought, and chase the prize, while keeping a clear head free of influence that does not ring true to your beliefs. Don't force a decision however. A screamer like Vulcan should be pretty obvious if you find the right sectors, then do your homework - see a couple of example posts of mine linked below from 2020 re Vulcan.
DYOR - get focussed and disregard ignorant people even if well-intentionedIt's amazing when you get onto one of these stories that some people who never understood the story and who don't understand markets will nevertheless offer advice about how many to sell and at what price. Nowadays, I stop people mid-sentence who start to do that and politely tell them I don't want to hear their opinion because I still find it a bit distracting even when I know they don't know what they're talking about.
FMG - stunning inspiration but I missed it. Lessons learned ...I missed FMG even though I knew the industry pretty well and its history very well. My mistake was in being too focussed on aspects of the industry and not properly taking into account big sector changes ON A FORWARD LOOKING BASIS e.g. the amount of possible increased demand for iron ore, buyers' wishes for more competition, cheaper freight from Australia -v- say Brazil and so on. So I missed the realisation that a focussed and driven visionary could create a 3rd force in Australian iron ore - on a grand scale - at that time. Stunning work by those involved at FMG, and an inspiration to anyone who takes bold and visionary steps into a well-considered new area.
Looking back, I didn't take the trouble to find out why so much intelligent money were buying the Fortescue story. Later on, I thought I'd missed the boat so I didn't buy in then either. You snooze, you lose ...
Focus on making money: Don't get distracted by idiots Fortunately, I was not negative about my oversight, or others good fortune - unlike some fools who post here re Vulcan without exposing rational debate. Sensible debate can be valuable (but isn't always if you
know where you're headed) but you'll have seen the posters to avoid e.g those who:
- mistakenly translate their limited industry knowledge into a misguided projection about the future. It's sometimes hard to tell what stems from not knowing and what stems from stirring, perhaps out of resentment etc. Some would be better to shut up and have others just think they're idiots than to open their mouths unwisely and prove it. It's an imperfect world, in which anonymity shelters some small people. Focus on your plan, not their nonsense;
- lock themselves further into their initially wrong conclusions by continuing to look to justify what they said (that's really strange when we're all anonymous here);
- apparently fail to ask themselves how they could choose better next time;
- waste their own time;
- generate negative emotions etc. that can't help their lives. Really silly stuff - life's too short. Fancy living with that ...
Then came VulcanI hadn't even heard of Vulcan until May 2020 when I discovered the story while looking for a lithium stock with quality assets and excellent management. It's hard to find gems unless you go looking - but search parameters are needed; there are lots of listed companies.
Unlike iron ore, I didn't know a lot about the lithium industry but I knew the sector had huge potential. I owned lithium stocks before the sector got smacked in 2018 - but I knew it would boom again when EVs and energy storage possibilities got some traction - across the entire planet. In this regard, I did not repeat the big picture miss (world-scale shift/opportunity) that I'd made re FMG.
I then looked for the right stock, with great leverage, in that sector. In doing so
I put huge value on credible, competent management. I'd frustratingly learned from buying stocks with good assets but poor management that - surprise, surprise - projects don't develop themselves. I ditched my previously held lithium stocks and bought into Vulcan, the management of which immediately gave me confidence. Critically, the Managing Director, Francis Wedin, impressed me from the outset as also being visionary, smart, clear thinking, driven, in a hurry but orderly, and market savvy. The more I've seen of him and the team that he has built around him, the more impressed I've become.
Some old VUL posts in real time - easy to follow bullet points
FWIW, I've linked here a few early posts I did on Vulcan when the shares were, respectively 39c, 57c and $2.15. I've done this simply to show the more detailed reasons that I took into account in real time. Think belief and conviction, which requires research and clarity and strength of thought.
Post #: 45132811 on 10 June 2020, when price was 39c: 6 bullet points and conclusion "Very compelling indeed".
Post #:47178173 on 8 Sept 2020, when price was 83.5c: ~ 20 bullets, with heading "Tremendous Upside Potential" and conclusion "Enjoy the ride. We're on a beauty here."
Post #:49055836on 22 Nov. 2020, when price was $2.15 with a MC of (rough guess) circa $170M: Comment near conclusion said:
"I imagine we could have a market cap. of a few billion Euros before too many years. If things are as positive as I think, I don't see VUL being based in Australia for too long because the Europeans will want to move it to its then natural home in Germany."Good luck!
(20min delay)