And there it is.....
Probably the reason the Stellantis deal, the worst kept secret in the lithium sector, has taken so long to announce, and the elusive German offtake, that we thought HAD to come.
I mean, how can a future German lithium producer, the biggest in Europe, listed in Frankfurt, not supply a German manufacturer???Impossible...
I also remember at a battery day about 12 months ago, Francis was in a photo, hanging out with the Daimler/Mercedes CEO...Funny about that!
So, this Stellantis/Daimler tie up, which would have been brewing in the background, as well as our BOA with Stellantis, would now be being tied up in a neat little package.
Additionally, their combined lithium requirements would now see a substantial increase, to just Stellantis alone.
I think ALL our output would most likely now been spoken for, and aportioned to our offtakers.
No wonder during the last interview, Francis was quoted
Accelerate, Expand, Derisk, and that offtakers wanted us to '
increase production.'Hence also the timing of this CR, and push to acquire brownfield, semi ready geothermal facilities ASAP. These could be upgraded and modified quickly, then have a pre fabricated DLE plant bolted on. From what I have read, the DLE side is quite simple, and the plant could be pre manufactured off site, while the brownfield plant was being upgraded. Estimating a 12 month turnaround. Production then??? Maybe Q2-Q4 2023...Not full capacity, but getting some product to the offtakers...
So, its all tying up....
1)The timing of the CR, sudden and pushed through as quickly as possible, now has context
2) The delay of the Stellantis deal announcement, while Daimler/Stellantis and their new battery manufacturer TotalEnergies, is taken into account and incorporated.
3) Finally, a German offtake.
Yes ladies and gentleman, its all coming together.
As
@ACinEur mentioned above, this CR price will look like a bargain in 12 months time, just as the old $6.50 CR now looks. It is now possible that in 12 months time, say October 2022, we may be 6 months from production...an optimistic timeline, but possible.
Thinking SP probably 2-3 times current value. (all off-takes complete, BFS/DFS complete, German listing, brownfields acquisition and construction, finance sorted, EU grant, EU tax incentives...)
You can even buy on market sub SPP price....what a gift. BTW, the SP is being driven down. The shorters have jumped on and we are currently at around 1.3% shorts. Which is a rise for us but nothing compared to someone like BHP at 5-6%.
So, we are seeing a depressed SP, which could have ran to 18, pre CR announcement, and has now been artificially dragged down to 13. This is in a stock which will make it to production, probably quicker than we think, and such a bright future, its undeniable.
The Vulcan story keeps growing and unfolding.
From the original concept, it has grown and expanded to beyond what Francis had originally planned.
This is when I usually list what we have going for us and coming up, but I wont bother this time....you guys already know it!
So lots to like here.
The Vulcan story is tying up very, very well, and progressing strategically.
Concept, strategy, development, ..production. Bloody beautiful...
As the story unfolds, it make more and more sense. and in my view, derisks to the point where I am very comfortable with my investment, and have no problem pouring more funds in.
It is also great to see such a pro active management team, who are nimble enough to recognise opportunity and quickly pivot the company to seize upon it. Well done Francis and (superstar)team!!!
Hold fast Vulcaneers, they might drop a bomb of an announcement on us soon....Stellantis/Daimler. That will destroy the short positions!!! Bloody beauty.
Anyway, all in my opinion...the usual...
Good luck everyone.
(20min delay)