mbot,We all know that VUL hasn't drilled wells yet.....at least,...

mbot,
We all know that VUL hasn't drilled wells yet.....at least, we should all know - as VUL have openly stated this in announcements released to date. They also stated that their modelling was conducted based on the leading edge geotechnical methodologies available (with the Geotechnical expertise now being brought in-house and acquired by VUL) and used the extensive 3D seismic data purchased from participants in the oil and gas industry - who have surveyed the areas concerned in great detail. This information is very detailed and is considered a sound basis for their modelling. It has been shown to be the foremost methodology in modelling geotechnical conditions prior to drilling. VUL have also put out information regarding the "double drilling" technique that they will be using to maximise the achievable flow rates out of the planned wells. In simple terms, it is like looking at the difference between sucking a drink out of a glass bottle through the only opening vs trying the same thing an additional air intake hole......the flow rates achieved by having the second hole are much higher. Also keep in mind that VUL will be pumping treated brine back into the reservoir - again assisting to equalise any pressure differentials and assist the actual flow rates achieved.
Ultimately, as VUL has stated, the modelled flow rates are based on the best information and modelling available but actual flow rates will not be determinable until they drill their wells.
There look to have been many holders that may have been "surprised" by this and subsequently sold. IMO, these holders were victims of their own lack of research. The information was all there for all to see!