I have good friends that start nearly every second sentence with "But . . ". It doesn't male them entirely contrary or even largely negative in their outlook. They like to examine and analyse different viewpoints. They're still good company.
HC contributors, in the main, are fairly balanced. Even when devoted to core stocks, they are prepared to accept valid criticisms. Fellow contributors are generous when someone admits an error. Some are fan boys and girls and some are paid (or somehow motivated) to create doubt and controversy for various reasons.
What Vulcan has set out to do is ambitious. It's a three pronged business model that has to be integrated. They are now considering expanding operation outside of Germany. This sphere of operations for Vulcan does not have the perceived freedom of the Pilbara. But even in the Pilbara there are constraints. The natural environment has to be protected. Traditional owners are rightly recognised key stakeholders. Good companies engage respectfully with them, accept advice and employ First Nations workers.
Europe provides a different set or circumstances. Some would identify these circumstances as challenges: highly regulated commerce, various layers of government, historic built environments, etc. Others would say that working in Europe provides opportunities for a company like Vulcan with a very strong ESG outlook.
It is reasonable to think that most long term investors in Vulcan are patient people. They know that bringing all the elements together requires time and expertise. Engineering expertise and experience in Europe is found in abundance. Vulcan also looks elsewhere for expertise. The contributions of the 200 year old global giant, DuPont, is not to be discounted.
When we read the anti-Vulcan posts that are not even handed, a characteristic of the writing are propositions predicated by expressions such as:
"It is likely . . . "
"One can easily imagine . . . ."
Investors expect delays, especially during a time of conflict in Europe, coming out of a pandemic with global supply and inflation issues. No surprises there.
But one can easily imagine success because geothermal is not a new process, nor even is DLE by sorption. There are major car manufacturers investing money and time in Vulcan.
One can easily imagine the same type of success as in the mass production of penicillin during WW2, when there was an intense global conflict, a financial upheaval, massive supply chain issues and grave doubts that it could ever be manufactured in meaningful quantities because it hadn't been done before.
Despite setbacks, there was concentrated international scientific and industrial co-operation that resulted in the successful production of this valuable antibiotic and Nobel prizes for a German, an Australian and Englishman.
The imperatives are comparable. Climate change is an existential threat to humanity and the need for sustainable heating, electricity production and electric power storage is critical.
One can easily imagine success because the EU is sympathetic and Vulcan has learnt from past failures of other related ventures.
One can easily imagine success for Vulcan investors because many of us invested an appropriate amount of money at much lower prices, have taken some profits along the way and are patiently waiting to see what will happen. Experienced investors know the challenges of developing a new company but can easily imagine success because we've weighed up the risks many times before.
The success of penicillin is a good model for investors. Its production came down to sound chemistry and engineering. One can easily imagine the same type of success with Vulcan. Let's see what happens.
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