Good post, griffdogYou said: "...next ~12 months we are looking at PFS, off take agreement or MOU,then DFS before the end of 2021 ... We will no doubt get further boosts similar to today's due to external news along the way. Based on this I'd say the largest increase will come over the next year ..."
I agree.Boosts could come from things like:
- Change in nature of Vulcan's Top 20 and other large holders
After the PFS, the Project risk will change. Some instos. and high/ultra high net worths will buy in or buy more stock once that milestone is successfully passed (assuming the Project has a good rate of return), while others will wait until after DFS or BFS, simply because of their risk profiles - even if the market cap is multiples of what it is currently. They are not only happy to 'know more - pay more' but their governance requirements may dictate that the Project be derisked by a DFS of BFS before a position can be taken. When instos start buying decent positions it can cause a big lift in MC, especially as we have so few shares on issue, and what seem to be pretty sticky holders.- Multiple cash flow sources (energy + heating + lithium)
In addition to selling our Zero Carbon lithium - from Europe's largest lithium resource, BTW - I think we also will be selling surplus energy plus heating (thanks to the geothermal source), which is important in Germany.If those income sources are good enough, that might underwrite financing for much of the capex of the geothermal part of the plant, which in turn will make overall Project funding easier and the economics even more attractive.
- Offtake or MOU - scramble for supply??
Once we have a PFS that gives some assurance about Project financials and social and other assessments (these surely will be positive given the importance to Europe of the European Green Deal) I am sure that some big lithium users will want to be early in the queue to buy from us.They know better than we do how tight supply -v- demand will be for many years to come.
Adding to that, the recently announced EU legislation about green passports etc. – coupled with lithium now being on the EU's Critical Materials list - will surely make early offtake or MOU arrangements an inevitability for us once buyers have sufficient assurance that they can rely on us to deliver.
People from all walks of life – not just politicians, lithium buyers, car companies such as VW that want to "GoToZero", financiers and ESG investors but also of course Vulcan team members and contractors PLUS the EU itself - want this Project to fly.Despite that groundswell of support, I expect the Vulcan team to continue to proceed respectfully but decisively: this Project is too important to be delayed in its delivery.
- One of the most important lithium Projects in the world.
With a plethora of battery factories planned or underway in Europe, including by far the world's largest – the extraordinary Tesla one planned for near Berlin - coupled with Elon Musk's September 2020 comments about buying lithium from the continent where batteries are to be produced, I think Vulcan has one of the most important lithium Projects in the world.
I'm not going to predict share prices, as I don't know how many shares will be issued as part of future funding for the Project.But I do know that the Company wishes to keep the share capital as tight as possible and I believe that Project funding should be easy enough – dare I say it – if the economics are as good as I'm hoping for.
I'm sticking my neck out a bit here, so close to PFS, but provided the economics look good then the current market cap will IMO multiply time and time again over the next few years, given all the tailwinds. That's why I said in this Post #: 49055836 that "...my 'arm-wave' feeling here for a while has been that ...if ... [* I then described some requirements including good plant performance *] ... we could have a market cap. of a few billion Euros before too many years...". So I have similar thoughts to you in that regard, too.
I'm in for the long haul. In fact I bought still more today, even though I bought options as long ago as May at 8.5c (now converted to shares). Here FYI was my first Post #: 45132811 re Vulcan (at 39c) which I then described as being "Very compelling indeed". Remarkably, the story keeps getting better. As Nagarjuna said in Post #: 49511884, "I've been doing this successfully for 39 years I've never seen a right place right time like this before". Spot on, mate - and my first buying was in 1968, pre Poseidon!
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